ES Picture till may29

We can see after the slope of the trend line first crossed down to zero on may 13, it oscillated around the zero, and the trend line is almost flat. This is what I said previously, the oscillation period. And I suggested that in this period, because mostly the next trend is down, we can short on an up for index.

Recently, some experts said the sp can reach 1050. However, although it is a possibility, I really double it. I still insist that next trend is down.

But, if the SP break 940 level, we really need be serious about the uptrend is the next.

Have a good weekend all

Don't read the last minutes' pulling up too much. It could be the end-of-month window dressing, or some index/portfolio rebalancing, or GM-related, or whatever.

Market will go the way it should go, no matter what. Make a plan and trade it, either long or short. I am short now by holding SRS positions with cost $20.58 (about -5% as of today's close, but that is fine).

Have a good weekend all!

A war between bulls and bears

Buyers and sellers are fighting hard in this last trading day of this month. 3 big white bars on monthly chart seem too much to me in any bear market.

Still holding SRS positions.

15:55pm, set stop: $19.45, firm!

Positions updated

1) My FAS limit sell order got filled at $9.45 AH. Ring the register in my performance panel +6.9% gain in 1 day.
2) My SRS limit buy order got filled at $20.58 AH.
3) Good or bad? Let market tell tomorrow.

Stock Order: FAS-DIREXION DAILY FINANCIAL BULL 3X SHARES

Status	Filled at $9.45
Symbol	FAS
Description	DIREXION DAILY FINANCIAL BULL 3X SHARES
Action	Sell
Quantity	XXXX Shares
Directed	ARCHIPELAGO HOLDINGS, L.L.C.
Order Type	Limit at $9.45
Time in Force	Day
Conditions	None
Trade Type	Cash
Market Session	After Hours
Order Date	05/28/2009, 04:36:40 PM
Cancel Date
Order Number	E28CRGQM

EXECUTIONS FOR THIS TRADE
Date	Time	Price	Quantity	Total
05/28/2009	07:59:00 PM	$9.45	XXXX	$X
NET TOTAL			XXXX	$X

Stock Order: SRS-PROSHARES ULTRA SHORT REAL ESTATE PROSHARES

Status	Verified Cancelled/Partially Filled
Symbol	SRS
Description	PROSHARES ULTRA SHORT REAL ESTATE PROSHARES
Action	Buy
Quantity	XXXX Shares
Directed	ARCHIPELAGO HOLDINGS, L.L.C.
Filled Quantity	XXXX Shares
Order Type	Limit at $20.58
Time in Force	Day
Conditions	None
Trade Type	Cash
Market Session	After Hours
Order Date	05/28/2009, 04:41:56 PM
Cancel Date
Order Number	E28CRJGF

EXECUTIONS FOR THIS TRADE
Date	Time	Price	Quantity	Total
05/28/2009	04:47:15 PM	$20.58	XXXX	$X
NET TOTAL			XXXX	$X

Update at close

I was just out of a long meeting, and am feeling that I should give an update for those who keep visiting my blogs and even following my calls, although I am pretty tired. I will be very glad if I could help you make profits on my calls.

1) My boss is very positive on banks, FYI.
2) From what the Pivot Trend System on XLF, today's up on XLF is not big enough to end the bullish call from the system. Still keep bullish on XLF.
3) From what else the system is tracking, it trigged a signal for a short term turn-around.
4) So here is my plan: coming soon. I need to review all my charts, along with analysis of my system. (For now, I would lock profits on XLF, +7.1% gain, not bad.)

I just realized tomorrow is the last trading day for this week and for this month. It could be very tricky, as where and how market closes tomorrow will technically have a big impact on its weekly and monthly charts, and thus on its future outlook. Even though I am waiting for a big pop-up in finance, I don't want to have any long exposure into tomorrow, as the Pivot Trend System signaled a bearish sign at today's close.

So here is what I decided to do and already did, I loaded SRS AH to hedge my FAS long positions. I may sell FAS tomorrow depending how market opens, since I can not rule out the most bearish scenario: a revisit SPX 880 or even lower to close, leaving the monthly chart with a long-head hammer or even doji.

Let's revisit the chart I posted on May, 20th.
http://foxswing.blogspot.com/2009/05/clear-picture-now.html

Nothing changed, plan still in play

Holding my FAS, which was loaded at yesterday's close $8.84, it is over +3% gain as of 11:48AM.

Hope that you sit tight in this morning's sell-off/shaking, if you are long.

Plan executed

Sold the other 1/2 SRS $21.52, +6.5% for this trade. Performance panel updated on the right.

Loaded FAS at $8.84 for short term play (1-3 days). Put it into my portfolio.

Yes, I am long now. So what? With a stop in mind.

Trade plan and system analysis

As you know, my Pivot Trend System is tracking XLF, IYR and SPY to give signals for swing trading, either long or short. There is one thing the system keeps telling me, which I sort of ignored when trading SRS/URE. But I think it is time to recall it. That is,

Finance (XLF) owns my system a big up day as long as it stays above $11.39.

So, my new plan is: unloading SRS and loading FAS at today's close.

Note: if mkt bounces at close, this plan will be canceled automatically.

Let's trade!

Plan to sell half SRS when SPX hits 901

Set a conditional order to execute the above plan. (SRS was loaded $20.2 at yesterday' close)

13:52PM, sold 1/2 SRS $21.51 when SPX hit 901. (+6.48%)

FoxSwing Real Time Trading

05/27/09 9:33 Short ES m9 @908.00

05/27/09 9:33 Cover long @908.00
05/21/09 13:35 Long ES m9 @884.50

05/21/09 13:35 Covere short @884.50
05/18/09 Sell ES m9 @902.25

New position: loaded SRS at close, $20.20

Following the signal from the Pivot Trend System. Put it into my portfolio. Also updated the performance panel on the right.

Still holding URE... Sold out

My limit order on URE at $3.3 this morning was not filled, even though I see the low of today is $3.3. I didn't chase it after missing that limit order. Still holding my URE positions loaded last Friday, with cost at $3.49. Will see how it works.

My first locking profit point will be SPX 901.
10:15AM, Sold 1/2 of URE: $3.61
12:48PM, Sold the other 1/2 of URE: $3.75

URE: +5.4% gain

If EURO is not fooling us...

I post a different view of the market from the perspective of currency (EURO). There are a lot of bullish signs on FXE chart (FXE is the EURUSD ETF). A clear breakout on EURO two days ago should be a big warn to bears. If market is able to regain its uptrend strength from next week, quickly and with much power (after investors back from their holiday vacation), a new high (SPX above 930) is very likely to see. See the self-explained chart below.

Bears, you are warned!