1) Don't expect quick rich in stock market.
2) Listen to everyone and question everything and everyone.
3) There's no such thing as hoping, wishing or praying.
4) The big money is made from position sizing.
5) Before trading, you must have a plan.
6) Record your trades, no only study the market, but also study yourself.
7) Don't fear that you'll miss anything. There are always opportunities.
8) View each trade independently.
9) Don't hold more than 5 stocks at same time. Stay focus: both your attention and your capital.
10) Trading the stock market isn't everything. Spend quality time with your family and cash some your profit to reward yourself.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Pivot Trend on IYR (Real Estate sector ETF)
That is the reason why I kept buying dips since last Tuesday, cleared out all my longs and loaded short positions (SRS) at the close of last Friday. You can notice that there are three big drawdowns for this pivot trend system in the past 1. 5 years, while all other calls are pretty impressive.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Short Squeezing
It is happening right now. Longs needed a strong heart through 2pm sell off though. Strong heart with me today!
Bulls, lock your profits
I am expecting a close at HOD (high of day) for the market. If you are long, that will be a perfect time for you to lock your profits, either cash out or add hedging instruments like covered call, and in the money put options.
I will clear out my XLF and GS calls, either my targets are reached or at high of close. And the prepare to load some short positions as planned.
PS. the FoxSwing trading system gave a sell signal around ES 861.
I will clear out my XLF and GS calls, either my targets are reached or at high of close. And the prepare to load some short positions as planned.
PS. the FoxSwing trading system gave a sell signal around ES 861.
SPX moves up decently while XLF is still lagging
Financial is under stress. A little patient would kick stress off and pay you back.
Still holding XLF and GS calls. My target $2.35 and $10.5
Still holding XLF and GS calls. My target $2.35 and $10.5
Bot GS 120 CALL $7.4
I am thinking financial should be up today, and betting GS with a 3.5% gain at close of today. Set sell target to be $10.5. Finger crossed!
My today's call from yesterday
Please note the following was posted at close of yesterday at someone's blog as comments.
I turned out to be tricked by the mkt in the last hour. My long positions (FAS and URE) got stopped out with only limited gain before mkt flying in the last 30 mins and closed at the high of today, which is exactly what I called from yesterday. Fortunately, I got some XLF call options before it flied, but very small positions.
Tomorrow, I will buy on some decent dips (if there is any, better much lower than today's close), and am expecting mkt to close higher than today's close. If so, I will be out all my longs and switch to open short positions at tomorrow's close. If no dip, don't have to chase high.
If mkt tomorrow closes with loss, I will need to re-consider my thoughts on the markets depending on how low it closes.
I turned out to be tricked by the mkt in the last hour. My long positions (FAS and URE) got stopped out with only limited gain before mkt flying in the last 30 mins and closed at the high of today, which is exactly what I called from yesterday. Fortunately, I got some XLF call options before it flied, but very small positions.
Tomorrow, I will buy on some decent dips (if there is any, better much lower than today's close), and am expecting mkt to close higher than today's close. If so, I will be out all my longs and switch to open short positions at tomorrow's close. If no dip, don't have to chase high.
If mkt tomorrow closes with loss, I will need to re-consider my thoughts on the markets depending on how low it closes.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
关于 stress test
政府搞了个银行的 stress test, 下周将要公布结果。
为什么要搞这样一个东西呢？
往好的方面去想，政府确实想知道如果再来一波针对银行的 selloff，这前19大银行有多少还能撑住，还需要多少政府注资。巴马大师的政府当然不想看到在自己任内倒掉几家大银行，这样的话，即使以不是留下的烂摊子为由也好像说不过去。
不过仔细一想，政府和银行不是一条船上的吗，由政府来对银行搞这个东西，那还不想怎么搞就怎么搞。何况这些银行还被暂时不用M2M会计原则，假账之下，规则自定。你想要什么样的结果？什么都行。不过，他们唯一要考虑的是怎么忽悠得大家信。 这不才有了结果公布推迟到了大部分银行都公布了一季度盈利之后。一季度着19家银行绝大部分盈利远超预期，在这样的利好之下，如果政府公布说19家银行都顺利的通过了test，估计很多人都信。
可是，股市从来都不是由普通股民来操纵的，他是由MM (market maker) 来推动的，你得要这些 MM相信才行。我估计MM还是不会相信没有一家银行有问题。所以全部顺利通过的结果不可能。
说了这么多，个人认为，不要太看重这个test，这是个什么都不是的东西，结果不可能坏，好结果也不会把股市推得高高。目前股市SP在873形成一个双顶，不突破873，股市会下探到至少730左右。如果突破了873，那么可到950。
为什么要搞这样一个东西呢？
往好的方面去想，政府确实想知道如果再来一波针对银行的 selloff，这前19大银行有多少还能撑住，还需要多少政府注资。巴马大师的政府当然不想看到在自己任内倒掉几家大银行，这样的话，即使以不是留下的烂摊子为由也好像说不过去。
不过仔细一想，政府和银行不是一条船上的吗，由政府来对银行搞这个东西，那还不想怎么搞就怎么搞。何况这些银行还被暂时不用M2M会计原则，假账之下，规则自定。你想要什么样的结果？什么都行。不过，他们唯一要考虑的是怎么忽悠得大家信。 这不才有了结果公布推迟到了大部分银行都公布了一季度盈利之后。一季度着19家银行绝大部分盈利远超预期，在这样的利好之下，如果政府公布说19家银行都顺利的通过了test，估计很多人都信。
可是，股市从来都不是由普通股民来操纵的，他是由MM (market maker) 来推动的，你得要这些 MM相信才行。我估计MM还是不会相信没有一家银行有问题。所以全部顺利通过的结果不可能。
说了这么多，个人认为，不要太看重这个test，这是个什么都不是的东西，结果不可能坏，好结果也不会把股市推得高高。目前股市SP在873形成一个双顶，不突破873，股市会下探到至少730左右。如果突破了873，那么可到950。
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