Big picture

ES prices form 09/2008 to 05/2009


A few days a gao, I said that after stress test, the market should pull back. However, today, I examine the trend line (it is not any days' moving average), it show the uptrend is not finished yet. The red line (our trend line is still up) does not even enter the osscilation region.


As a result, I need to remind the guys who want to short this market, it is still too danger. When it is a proper time to short, I will post again.

Weekly review on my trades (5/4 - 5/8)

This week, I made 7 trades, all of them were public and real time. 6 of them were closed (one was a break-even trade, not listed below), while the other one was just open at today's close (SRS, $19.75). The sum gain percent of closed trades is +16.82%. It is a good week in general, compared with market (spx from 877-930, 53pts, wow) which gained +5.89%. The notable points are I gained most from short positions in this big up week. I am even surprised how I survived and even gained not bad profits. I think I must thank much to my Pivot Trend System which provides me great market movement guidance. See my trades below.

5/8	FAS	$11.42	5/8	$11.25	-1.48%
5/7	SRS	$21.56	5/7	23.15	+7.3%
5/6	SRS	$20.80	5/7	$22.85	+9.8%
5/4	SRS	$21.15	5/5	$22.25	+5.2%
5/4	BGZ	$42.2	5/4	$40.51	-4.0%

You may have a question in your mind, why not siting with longs and just follow the uptrend? The answer to me, and hopefully to you, is very clear, are you feeling comfortable staying long opened this week at such a high level after 8 weeks up in a row? If you set stops on your longs, I bet you were already shaken out (there are two negative days in this week), and re-entering always needs lots of courage and a strong heart.

Surely, I could do better, like today's FAS trade and URE call. But in trading, you will never be prefect, as there are too many uncertainties. What matters the most to me is reducing risk and protecting capitals, since what I have learned from market so far is that profits are accumulative, not from betting once big.

Hope you enjoy my posts, make money on my calls and have a nice weekend!

I am done with loading SRS

$19.8 and $19.7, a little heavy positions.

Good luck!

New plan, this time on SRS

I did not trade for today's up, even though my call on URE/IYR yesterday was so great! Hope that you have made money, if you followed my call.

I will load SRS when SPX hits 930 for the first half. The second half will be spent at close, if SPX closes higher than 930.

Out FAS, $11.25

-1.5% loss. not my type of trade.

Sell XXXX Shares of FAS Order Number:E08BTJCL

Details

Filled at $11.25

Bought FAS, $11.42

This trade is not in my plan, however, I found an interesting set up that would hopefully play out. Surely, will watch closely. This is a little risky play, don't suggest to follow.

This blog got 7000 hits in 3 weeks

Since I started this blog on 4/23, there have been over 7000 visits from 24 different countries all over the world. Here are top 10.

1.	United States	1,564	2.38	00:08:46	30.43%	68.67%
2.	Canada	254	4.39	00:10:00	26.38%	65.75%
3.	Spain	42	2.50	00:12:00	11.90%	64.29%
4.	Italy	21	1.52	00:01:59	14.29%	66.67%
5.	United Kingdom	19	1.21	00:00:06	10.53%	84.21%
6.	Australia	19	1.00	00:00:00	47.37%	100.00%
7.	Argentina	10	1.70	00:00:51	50.00%	80.00%
8.	Slovenia	9	1.44	00:01:01	22.22%	77.78%
9.	China	6	1.50	00:00:38	50.00%	83.33%
10.	Belgium	5	1.40	00:00:07	60.00%	80.00%

THANK YOU FOR VISITING!

New trade plan for tomorrow (5/8)

Long IYR! If there is no good entry point for me to enter at close or AH today, I will wait to load long positions on IYR (probably using URE 2x ETFs) tomorrow.

XLF remains bearish in my system while SPY and QQQQ are neutral.

ps. URE is rising after I posted this. Not a very attractive entry for me. Maybe wait for tomorrow.

The reason for today's drop

Today, data good!

Jobless beat estimate
Retails Good!

Why Drop?

Main reason: Bond

Bond sell is more difficult. This crisis lets people know US financial system is fooling the world. So it will be more difficult to sell bonds because they ask higher interests since they think the risk is higher now. However, US don't want to lift interests.

As results, bonds cannot be sold -> no easy cash for US -> stock drops

Sold the other batch of SRS, $23.15

Loaded at $21.56 this morning. +7.37% gain.

Bingo!

A little put option left, just a little. Will close them around close.'

Thanks for your "good luck"!

Sold some SRS (loaded 20.80) at 22.85

The batch I sold was loaded at yesterday's close $20.80.

I can not resist not taking these good profits. +9.85% gain! (see my performance panel on the right)

Still holding the other batch I loaded this morning at $21.56.

Lock some profits here on my put options

Closed some put options. So far, not bad!

Average UP on SRS $21.56

Let's rock.

Foxswing Add 2 short

Short ES M9 @925.50 @ 9:31

Now we have 6 shorts

Another gap up open?

I am shorting the market right now. Where is my stop? If market closes today by over 1% (on SPX), I will clear all my short positions. Otherwise, I will hold my shorts tightly.

Bull's action of yesterday to me looked like panic buying. You know what is going to happen usually after that. But I would rather not predict the market, but follow the Pivot Trend System and my indicators.

Re-loaded SRS at close $20.8

Also bought some SPY MAY put options. As is planned, heavily short now!

I think it is now a pretty good entry to short, although I could be very badly wrong (another 5% up day on SPX waiting for me?).

Let's see how it plays. Good luck to me, this time!

SRS out, break even $21.25

I may be too greedy not selling it when it was around $22.75 (+7% gain).

Well, that is the way it is, no loss at least.

Bought SRS, $21.25

Loaded short positions at open due to gap up as is planned. Will watch closely!!

With a mental stop in mind.

Keep my original view: Short in short term

After carefully reviewing all the charts and the Pivot Trend System, I keep my original view that the close of 5/4 (SPX 907, XLF 11.73, IYR 34.64) is a closing top for at least short term.

The Pivot Trend System so far provides me a very good guidance on market moves (like yesterday's short signal on IYR at close). However, it could be wrong if market goes up from here another over 5% (on SPX). I can not rule out the situation of another big up day coming soon at this moment, though it looks unlikely to me. So a proper stop will be set along with any trade.

My trade plan for tomorrow is:
If market opens with a gap up tomorrow, I will place some heavy short positions this time. Otherwise, wait for the next high points to load short positions. If market opens with a serious gap down tomorrow without any meaningful bounce (considering bulls' action today, no bounce is also unlikely to me), I would miss this shorting opportunity rather than chasing lower.

For now, I am flat without any positions, but set a limit order on SRS AH to see whether it will be filled. As always, I will post my real time trades/stops and intra-day market comments on this blog. You are also welcome to exchange ideas and market views with me!

Let bears play this time, even though it could be short-term joy only. Good luck, everyone!

SRS hit my stop $22.25

+5.2% gain (loaded $21.15 at close of yesterday).

Sell XXXX Shares of SRS Order Number:E05CVTPS

Details

Filled at $22.25

Will review my trading plan due to the late bounce.

New trade plan towards today's close (CANCELED)

If, if market doesn't have a big bounce from here in the last 40 mins, I will close my SRS positions (loaded at yesterday's close $21.15) at today's close and build a little long positions on IYR (URE). Otherwise, this plan will be canceled automatically.

If you are following my calls or reading my posts recently, please let me know in the comments.

Words from my Twitter, read from the bottom

half a minute ago from iTweet

Consider trading as running your own business, cash flow is the KEY! Mark my words

1 minute ago from iTweet

what your true edge is patient enough, and skills in your money management

2 minutes ago from iTweet

you think your TA and FA are your edge? definitely No

3 minutes ago from iTweet

that is naturally saying, most of traders (90%) will loss money. You have to have some edge to stand out, otherwise keep away from this game

4 minutes ago from iTweet

we can not change the rules of the game (uptick, short ban, M2M, ...)

5 minutes ago from iTweet

we don't know some secrets, insider info in advance

5 minutes ago from iTweet

We don't have large enough money to build a deep pocket portfolio

6 minutes ago from iTweet

Patient!!

6 minutes ago from iTweet

What a quiet day! I can tell the only advantage of retail investors like you and me in this game is ....

About this uptrend

As I said previously, If the SP breaks 873 level, it will test next level at about 950. However, now the stress test is the key whether it can have a try on the 950 level.

It also depends on whether all the big banks have successfully issued more stocks or bonds, because surely most banks need more cash. Otherwise stress test will be released as soon as possible.

So be careful.

We are still holding short positions for the FoxSwing Trading System, now already 4 short ES, two @861.75 and two @892.25

Bought SRS, $21.15 at close

Today's big up made my Pivot Trend System close its bullish signals on finance sector (XLF, since the close of 4/20, from $9.87 to $11.73, +18.84% in two weeks) and on real estate sector (IYR, since last Friday 5/1, from $31.88 to $34.64, +8.66% in one day).

My trade on BGZ today got stopped out with loss of 4%. New trade on SRS was just made at close, $21.15.

Buy XXXX Shares of SRS Order Number:E04DCHVW

Details

Filled at $21.15

Now all my indicators give me some consistence, that is, a bearish scenario from now. Let's see how my system and trade play from tomorrow.






GL!

Finace is up huge today, over 7% on XLF

"PS. XLF still remains bullish in my Pivot Trend System since the close of 4/20 when XLF was $9.87. At the close of last Friday, it was $10.65 (+7.9%)."

Today is $11.48 right now, wow~

BGZ stop out $40.51

Market is in danger

We should pay MORE caution here to the market.

With stress test result to be out on Thursday, banks are likely to cash out to try hard to meet cash/capital/etc. criteria set by Fed, since not a single bank wants to see its name in the failure list. If so, Today's top on SPX could be a real TOP to play on short side.

As I am writing this, market starts to pull back with sizable volume. Still holding my BGZ, with a mental stop.

Bought BGZ $42.2

Let's see whether my plan works.

SPX = 890 where R2 is today. Tight stop though

Short SPY and Long IYR for Monday (5/4), or ...

Right, my new trading plan for Monday is SHORT SPY and LONG IYR. Surely you could use leveraged ETFs with proper position sizing to maximize your profit while reducing risk. To me, BGZ (short SPY) and URE (long IYR) would be my instruments to trade on Monday. This is exactly what Pivot Trend System provides me. Two charts on SPY and IYR are posted below, as you can find green and red arrows in the charts as long/short signals.


If you are not comfortable to have both long and short positions at the same time. See below...

Signals from system are really mixed and no clear direction for where market could go. Market seems to go sideways. Cash in hand is not a bad idea in fact. Cash is also a position, isn't it?

If market opens with gap up on Monday, I would build SPY short positions (buy BGZ);
If market opens with gap down on Monday, I would build IYR long positions (buy URE);
If market opens flat, I will wait until either a high point or a low point that I would feel comfortable to build short or long positions.

Good luck, everyone on your trading next week.

PS. XLF still remains bullish in my Pivot Trend System since the close of 4/20 when XLF was $9.87. At the close of last Friday, it was $10.65 (+7.9%).