I will post my market view and new trade plan, which will look very interesting either later Saturday night or Sunday afternoon.
Currently no open positions in my portfolio.
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Friday, May 1, 2009
I am out SRS at $24.11!
I am flat now. See my twitter update.
+5.2% gain (corrected)
My plan doesn't change, SELL into any rally. Will re-load short positions later
+5.2% gain (corrected)
My plan doesn't change, SELL into any rally. Will re-load short positions later
Finance sector is scaring bears
This is what I posted at the close of 4/29.
"All my indicators point to a bearish scenario, suggesting me loading short positions, while financial sector (XLF) remains bullish."
That is the only concern that I have right now. Put your guards on!
"All my indicators point to a bearish scenario, suggesting me loading short positions, while financial sector (XLF) remains bullish."
That is the only concern that I have right now. Put your guards on!
First locking profits point SPX 864, if
if there is a quick and straight fall from now, will lock some at 864.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Pivot Trend System rocks
If you visit this blog, read my real time trades and my posts about what signals the Pivot Trend System gives me, you know how amazing the system is.
Bot SRS $22.9154, trade as is planned
| Buy XXXX Shares of SRS Order Number:D30BHWBQ | Details | Filled at $22.9154 | |
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Today's market: tricky close
I received mixed signals from the Pivot Trend System at today's close.
All my indicators point to a bearish scenario, suggesting me loading short positions, while financial sector (XLF) remains bullish. Finance is usually the main force to push market up, big up, but sometimes, it could also be very tricky with a sudden big sell-off. OK, here is my take.
My trading strategy from now is to SELL INTO RALLY, with the mind that a quick turn to bullish may happen at any time. It may happen or not, depending on what Pivot Trend System brings to me.
My AH order for SRS was not filled. I am flat now. Will start to load short positions on rally if there is any, or the points where I feel comfortable to short. As always, real time trade posts will be shown here.
I am pretty transparent! (see my performance panel on the right)
All my indicators point to a bearish scenario, suggesting me loading short positions, while financial sector (XLF) remains bullish. Finance is usually the main force to push market up, big up, but sometimes, it could also be very tricky with a sudden big sell-off. OK, here is my take.
My trading strategy from now is to SELL INTO RALLY, with the mind that a quick turn to bullish may happen at any time. It may happen or not, depending on what Pivot Trend System brings to me.
My AH order for SRS was not filled. I am flat now. Will start to load short positions on rally if there is any, or the points where I feel comfortable to short. As always, real time trade posts will be shown here.
I am pretty transparent! (see my performance panel on the right)
This round's long trade was done
In my yesterday's post, I said,
"One thing is clear in my mind, this round's trade on the long side would have a higher exit point than where we closed right now (SPX 855, IYR 31.74, XLF 10.43), according to what Pivot Trend System gives me."
Now SPX 873 or +16pts, IYR 33.00 or +3.97%, XLF 10.88 or +4.31%, compared with what I called in the post. This gave us a nice ending on this round's long trades. I traded 3x leverage financial ETF FAS to maximize the profits, gaining about +9%.
Let's move on the next trade now.
(To Be Continued...)
"One thing is clear in my mind, this round's trade on the long side would have a higher exit point than where we closed right now (SPX 855, IYR 31.74, XLF 10.43), according to what Pivot Trend System gives me."
Now SPX 873 or +16pts, IYR 33.00 or +3.97%, XLF 10.88 or +4.31%, compared with what I called in the post. This gave us a nice ending on this round's long trades. I traded 3x leverage financial ETF FAS to maximize the profits, gaining about +9%.
Let's move on the next trade now.
(To Be Continued...)
Mkt is holding well. New trade plan.
Will start to build some short positions at close if market closes where it is right now or above.
If a sell-off happens at the end, plan will be automatically canceled. And will review the market carefully.
GL!
If a sell-off happens at the end, plan will be automatically canceled. And will review the market carefully.
GL!
Why Market in the uptrend for so long time?
For almost 8 weeks, stocks are up up and up, why?
Is it because of the good news, a group of good news? No, there is a lot of bad news, a lot of very bad news. However, even for bad news, wall street tried to find the bright side in the bad news, they don't want the bad news.
Yes, wall street now don't want to pay attention to bad news. Why? The reason is quite complex.
1. US want to save his financial system, this is the foundation of US.
2. To save the banks, they need huge amount of money, 780B Fed money is not enough, they need money from investors
3. Investors won't give their money if the stock maket are horrible low, banks cannot issue more stock successfully if their stock price is very low.
4. So stock must go up up
Now, the question is whether it is up enough now? Since big banks are said to issue more stocks, such as GS, BOA, Citi. I think within two weeks, market will start to drop. Bears, be patient
Is it because of the good news, a group of good news? No, there is a lot of bad news, a lot of very bad news. However, even for bad news, wall street tried to find the bright side in the bad news, they don't want the bad news.
Yes, wall street now don't want to pay attention to bad news. Why? The reason is quite complex.
1. US want to save his financial system, this is the foundation of US.
2. To save the banks, they need huge amount of money, 780B Fed money is not enough, they need money from investors
3. Investors won't give their money if the stock maket are horrible low, banks cannot issue more stock successfully if their stock price is very low.
4. So stock must go up up
Now, the question is whether it is up enough now? Since big banks are said to issue more stocks, such as GS, BOA, Citi. I think within two weeks, market will start to drop. Bears, be patient
GDP -6.1%
As I said yesterday, GDP worse than expected -5%.
I posted and forecast the GDP will decline more than 6%
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://anasdaq.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=438012&cust=nasdaq&year=2009
I posted and forecast the GDP will decline more than 6%
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://anasdaq.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=438012&cust=nasdaq&year=2009
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Today's move and close of market
Today is basically flat. Market moved in a narrow range after morning's pulling up to fill the down gap. My two trades shown here are too flat, no gain no loss.
After taking a careful look at today's move and close, my call on the long side made from yesterday (4/27)'s close is still intact. Nothing changes. The trading plan for now is to wait for a dip where you feel comfortable to buy and hold. People may have their personal risk tolerance and different money management strategies. So only you know what kind of a dip fits your trading. Surely, I will post my real time trades here FYI, which are definitely not paper-trading. I manage my real money seriously.
One thing is clear in my mind, this round's trade on the long side would have a higher exit point than where we closed right now (SPX 855, IYR 31.74, XLF 10.43), according to what Pivot Trend System gives me. The thing that matters to me is when I should re-load new long positions. Market right here could go either way, mild down for more days, or fly away quickly from tomorrow, which I couldn't tell at this moment.
I personally may consider to load a little AH today.
Slow market day gives you more time to think about your trading plan again!
After taking a careful look at today's move and close, my call on the long side made from yesterday (4/27)'s close is still intact. Nothing changes. The trading plan for now is to wait for a dip where you feel comfortable to buy and hold. People may have their personal risk tolerance and different money management strategies. So only you know what kind of a dip fits your trading. Surely, I will post my real time trades here FYI, which are definitely not paper-trading. I manage my real money seriously.
One thing is clear in my mind, this round's trade on the long side would have a higher exit point than where we closed right now (SPX 855, IYR 31.74, XLF 10.43), according to what Pivot Trend System gives me. The thing that matters to me is when I should re-load new long positions. Market right here could go either way, mild down for more days, or fly away quickly from tomorrow, which I couldn't tell at this moment.
I personally may consider to load a little AH today.
Slow market day gives you more time to think about your trading plan again!
Swine flu will kick the ass of bull
Calif. deaths investigated for swine flu linkshttp://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_swine_flu_california_deaths
If the death confirmed, bulls will be killed, it will start the new round of bottom diving.
Be careful
If the death confirmed, bulls will be killed, it will start the new round of bottom diving.
Be careful
Retesting 860 SPX
But this time, it is acting as support!
Sell off at close or HOD today? Let's market tell.
Sell off at close or HOD today? Let's market tell.
Break out on upside!!
Let's see how it closes. Will tomorrow's GDP news have a big impact on today's close?
Testing 860 again.
This is the 5th time. The more it tests, the more likely it will break out.
Let's see!
Let's see!
Stay long
If anybody wants to know my current positions, still long URE and FAS which were loaded at yesterday's close.
I will decide whether to sell or not depending on how market closes.
Will keep you updated. Don't worry!
I will decide whether to sell or not depending on how market closes.
Will keep you updated. Don't worry!
About GDP data tomorrow
Tomorrow, the GDP of first quarter will be released. The forecast result is -5.0%. If the result is about the same as forecast, the wall street will think this is another sign of bottom forming. However, if you look at the earnings of first quarter, I have a feeling that GDP will decline more than 6%.
The characteristics of the first quarter earing reports are:
1. profit Beat eastimation while profit drops
2. sells drops
3. Profit through cutting expence
This is very different from the ER of fourth quarter of 2008. That's the reason why I think GDP will decline more than 6%.
The characteristics of the first quarter earing reports are:
1. profit Beat eastimation while profit drops
2. sells drops
3. Profit through cutting expence
This is very different from the ER of fourth quarter of 2008. That's the reason why I think GDP will decline more than 6%.
Being rejected by 860 SPX
This is the first time attempt of today. Will watch closely ...
Could consolidate between 855 (DMA(5)) and 860 (VWAP, Pivot point of today) on SPX for while. Lower than 855 needs a careful review.
Could consolidate between 855 (DMA(5)) and 860 (VWAP, Pivot point of today) on SPX for while. Lower than 855 needs a careful review.
Could be a strong resistance at SPX 860
Where Pivot for today and VWAP are. It is not a bad idea to lock some profits if you are long from early this morning.
Stay long.
Stay long.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Tomorrow's call (4/28): an UP day
I have been calling the next day's market move correctly 3 times in a row since last Wed when this blog was launched. (Thursday and Friday's higher highs; Monday's negative close)
I am using the Pivot Trend System to help me make market calls usually after each day's close. The Pivot Trend System is not developed by myself. Instead, it is rooted originally from a well-known market foundation theory, and developed by a team including me. Historically testing results show a +70% winning percentage on all buy and sell signals. Today, I am not going to talk about the system into much detail, but hope one day I could share with you some ideas behind that system and how each call is essentially made.
Alright, let's go over today's market move and what I traded.
Market opened with a gap down, but the pull-up in the morning filled the gap and recovered all the loss. I am still confused about that 10:15Am's sudden up with huge volume, which made me close all my short positions (with some gains on SRS and SDS, see the performance panel on the right) and be very defensive to protect my trading assets. Then market re-tested the open low and got some support to bounce a little bit, ending with a very volatile close. I was able to load BGZ in the afternoon's downtrend and closed it with +2% gain before market trying to bounce higher.
QQQQ seems inevitable to test SMA(200), which is about 1.5% higher than today's close.
Market closed negatively with lighter volume, esp. for finance sector XLF. SPY, IYR and XLF all stand above SMA(10) in closing prices. All of these contribute a bullish base for tomorrow. Plus the Pivot Trend System signaled BUY at close. If market could open with gap up or effectively stand above 870 on SPX in the early morning, a huge up day would be very possible, i.e. a new high (higher than 875) will be established toward tomorrow's close. I won't be surprised if that happens. What it needs to do is get some help from finance to lift the market up. XLF consolidated at high levels and refused to go down hard, no matter how weak you can tell recently in finance, which scares bears in any aspect.
If tomorrow closes with a big loss, I will need to re-consider the call, and look into the market carefully.
Current positions, URE and FAS (wow, 3X bullish for me) loaded after hours, which are listed in the performance panel.
Of course, there is no sure thing in this market. My call and the signal from the system could be wrong, sometimes it could be wrong very badly. So reduce your risk and put your guards on as always!
Good luck!
I am using the Pivot Trend System to help me make market calls usually after each day's close. The Pivot Trend System is not developed by myself. Instead, it is rooted originally from a well-known market foundation theory, and developed by a team including me. Historically testing results show a +70% winning percentage on all buy and sell signals. Today, I am not going to talk about the system into much detail, but hope one day I could share with you some ideas behind that system and how each call is essentially made.
Alright, let's go over today's market move and what I traded.
Market opened with a gap down, but the pull-up in the morning filled the gap and recovered all the loss. I am still confused about that 10:15Am's sudden up with huge volume, which made me close all my short positions (with some gains on SRS and SDS, see the performance panel on the right) and be very defensive to protect my trading assets. Then market re-tested the open low and got some support to bounce a little bit, ending with a very volatile close. I was able to load BGZ in the afternoon's downtrend and closed it with +2% gain before market trying to bounce higher.
QQQQ seems inevitable to test SMA(200), which is about 1.5% higher than today's close.
Market closed negatively with lighter volume, esp. for finance sector XLF. SPY, IYR and XLF all stand above SMA(10) in closing prices. All of these contribute a bullish base for tomorrow. Plus the Pivot Trend System signaled BUY at close. If market could open with gap up or effectively stand above 870 on SPX in the early morning, a huge up day would be very possible, i.e. a new high (higher than 875) will be established toward tomorrow's close. I won't be surprised if that happens. What it needs to do is get some help from finance to lift the market up. XLF consolidated at high levels and refused to go down hard, no matter how weak you can tell recently in finance, which scares bears in any aspect.
If tomorrow closes with a big loss, I will need to re-consider the call, and look into the market carefully.
Current positions, URE and FAS (wow, 3X bullish for me) loaded after hours, which are listed in the performance panel.
Of course, there is no sure thing in this market. My call and the signal from the system could be wrong, sometimes it could be wrong very badly. So reduce your risk and put your guards on as always!
Good luck!
Will post my analysis late tonight for tomorrow'call
My call for last Thursday, Friday and today proved to be correct. You can see my previous posts for those calls.
I will put something together tonight to justify my call tomorrow: UP, potential a big up day (esp. for finance) to take a break for the uptrend in this round.
I will put something together tonight to justify my call tomorrow: UP, potential a big up day (esp. for finance) to take a break for the uptrend in this round.
Pivot Trend Signal at close of 4/27: LONG
I double checked the signal that Pivot Trend System gave me before close. Yes, I didn't read it wrong. It signaled BUY/LONG.
Prepare to load some long positions AH. Will post them with entry price if loaded.
I was expecting short for just 1 day. However, this is the way the system signaled.
Prepare to load some long positions AH. Will post them with entry price if loaded.
I was expecting short for just 1 day. However, this is the way the system signaled.
SPX 855-856 were tested 4 times
That is the line where S1 is. The more it tests, the more possible it will break eventually. I am surprised by the action from bulls.
No open short positions so far, except that ES position from our FoxSwing Trading System (see the "FoxSwing Trading System on C2" panel on the right)
Just be patient!
No open short positions so far, except that ES position from our FoxSwing Trading System (see the "FoxSwing Trading System on C2" panel on the right)
Just be patient!
I hope I could hold short positions longer
But this market doesn't give up its bullish sentiment yet. So I have to be very defensive, right now.
Don't put your guard down.
Don't put your guard down.
SPX in Pivot Trend System
Pivot Trend System gave a sell signal at last Friday's close (annotated by a red down arrow in the chart). So from now on, my trading strategy changed from last week (since Tuesday)'s buy on any dip to sell on any rally now.
I won't open long positions against what Pivot Trend System gives me usually, until I get a buy signal from the system.
As always, micro management on positions will be acted for reducing risk and market exposure if necessary, like what I did this morning by closing short positions.
Waiting for re-loading short positions.
Can not fight
You can not fight the market when you see huge volume on upside while you are holding shorts. To protect your capital and reduce your risk is always #1 job you need to take care of, no matter whether that sudden pulling up (I don't why) could turn out to be a false one or not. You always have (even better) opportunities to trade it again, as long as you have enough cash.
Unlimited opportunities, limited cash for retail investors.
Luck me that I got in with very good entries for shorts and ended up with small gains in this short squeezing.
Unlimited opportunities, limited cash for retail investors.
Luck me that I got in with very good entries for shorts and ended up with small gains in this short squeezing.
Close all short positions
With some gains. Volume on upside is getting crazy!!!
SRS $24.54
SDS $65.54
Performance panel updated.
I could be tricked by mkt again, but I want to protect my investment capital.
SRS $24.54
SDS $65.54
Performance panel updated.
I could be tricked by mkt again, but I want to protect my investment capital.
ES Trading
Our ES trading system is totally different from the Pivot Trend System that I am using to follow market or some sectors' cycles. The general idea behind ES trading system is that we avoid capturing market tops and bottoms, since those are most difficult things in trading, while attempting to gain with comfortable points by holding and waiting for the entries and exits.
So, you can see that we turned around at ES 861 to close longs and open shorts, with ES 861 definitely not a top, which our ES trading system is not designed to capture.
Just want to make it clear.
So, you can see that we turned around at ES 861 to close longs and open shorts, with ES 861 definitely not a top, which our ES trading system is not designed to capture.
Just want to make it clear.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
My Call for Monday (4/27)
Last Friday was a very tricky day. I made the correct call for market closing higher than Thursday's close. The 2pm sell-off with stress test news was a fake one. Market was quickly puling up to erase the loss in that sell-off. However, the last 10 mins sell-off at close should be highly respected. As I stated, I closed all my long holdings in the start of that sell-off and loaded some short positions (SRS and SDS) at close and AH (see my performance panel on right). The reason that I did that is the possible scenarios in my mind as follows.
1) High possibility. Monday will be a negative day. By negative, I mean it will close lower (even much lower in real estate sector [IYR]) than last Friday's close. I will decide whether to close short positions or to sell on any rally at Monday's close to see how low it would close.
2) Still possible. Monday will close in green in a small margin. If that happens, I will add more short positions at close. And then the big picture would be more clear: a severe sell-off would be around the corner.
3)Small or tiny possibility. This case is not indicated in any way in my Pivot Trend system. But you know, everything can happen in this market, and my system can not be correct 100%. So if this happens on Monday, I would admit my system gave me a false signal and I will be careful to look into the chart to re-consider where the markt could go from there.
My target on SRS is $25.55 and on SDS is $67 for now. Of course, they will be adjusted by listening the messages from market.
Good luck, everyone!
1) High possibility. Monday will be a negative day. By negative, I mean it will close lower (even much lower in real estate sector [IYR]) than last Friday's close. I will decide whether to close short positions or to sell on any rally at Monday's close to see how low it would close.
2) Still possible. Monday will close in green in a small margin. If that happens, I will add more short positions at close. And then the big picture would be more clear: a severe sell-off would be around the corner.
3)Small or tiny possibility. This case is not indicated in any way in my Pivot Trend system. But you know, everything can happen in this market, and my system can not be correct 100%. So if this happens on Monday, I would admit my system gave me a false signal and I will be careful to look into the chart to re-consider where the markt could go from there.
My target on SRS is $25.55 and on SDS is $67 for now. Of course, they will be adjusted by listening the messages from market.
Good luck, everyone!
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