Happy long weekend

Stocks are definitely not everything in our life. With your family and friends, enjoy the holiday!

The Pivot Trend System indicates a bounce early next week unless XLF closes below $11.39. I am holding long positions URE into next week.

I only traded 4 times in this week. 3 out of them are with +4.6%, +6% and -1.2% gain/loss, while the other one (URE) remains open. See my performance panel on the right.

I still keep my intermediate view of this market which is a 2-3 month "correction" is on the way. [first target: SPX SMA(50)]

Good luck!

Bought URE, $3.49; long UYM, $18.5

Right, I am not crazy that I am long right now, with tight stop though.

10:20AM, bought UYM $18.5, Basic Materials are leading to bounce.

15:25PM, Cut UYM $18.3 to reduce long exposure over long weekend. (-1.2%)

The chart looks bearish, but ...

But I can not rule out a possible dead cat bounce for this market. So just be patient.

FoxSwing Real Time Trading

05/21/09 13:35 Long ES m9 @884.50

05/21/09 13:35 Covere short @884.50
05/18/09 Sell ES m9 @902.25

My trade plan

1) Don't aggressively short at this moment.
2) May long XLF or IYR (FAS/URE) with a proper (not big) size, due to Pivot Trend's BUY signal.
3) Slowly open intermediate short positions (I am currently holding IYR June 37 PUT)

Anyone interest on Euro futures?

I might post my realtime signal here.

Still, Oscillation will be last for a while

Still no much new to say, normally after a big trend , it should be ranged for a while before it goes to another trend. So in the trend line picture, its slope will cross over 0 sevral times in this period.

And I personally still believe, this trend was over when last time I posted here. Now even the slope of the trendline is above 0, I think it is typical oscillation. And since personally, I think no much room to go up, (Further more, as today, it likes it forms double tops around 930) I believe the next trend is down.

If you trade index futures, I suggest short on an up as I said last time.

I have to post the new signal: BUY

After I viewed the chart and posted it here for intermediate play, the Pivot Trend System signaled BUY at today's close. As you know, the Pivot Trend System is a short term player, averaging 3-4 days holding periods.

So for now, it is not a bad idea to either lock the profits on short positions or add some hedeging long positions. For me, I didn't open any long positions today. May find a better entry tomorrow just for short term play.

Clear picture now

The bigger picture is getting clear for me now. Going down from here! The final pop-up that I was expecting may happen and thus end already this morning (it looked so bullish this morning with huge volume in, didn't it?).

See the following big picture. Comments on the chart explain everything.


Currently, I am shoring IYR by put options. Will find an entry point to load SRS too.

Mixed signals: what to do?

Market erased all day's gain in the last hour selling off. However, I don't think bears won effectivelty today. There are mixed signals from the Pivot Trend System: remaining SELL on IYR, but XLF holding very well, which could lead the market go higher, even much higher from here. VIX broke down 30 the first time in the recent eight months, which is considered to be a very bullish sign to me. Bad economic data (housing data) could not even drag the market down. I do smell some strength of the market. A big up day may be right at the corner in this week. So, I decided to close the my short positions SRS with some gains, avoiding the risk of being squeezed. If I see some weakness of the market, I would re-open short positions at any time. But for now, I am flat. Remember cash is also a position.

The uptrend since March 9th is still intact. Market is expecting a final pop-up to end this round. I don't think we are there yet, but could be very close. This round of uptrend is led by finance, and will end by finance as well with a climax upside run. If I have to give a target on this round's peak, I would say VIX 25.

Good luck to all on your trading!

Locking profits by selling SRS 21.45 AH

Bought at $20.5 at yesterday's close, +4.6% gain, currently I am flat, no positions at hand.

I will give a review soon. Sorry, I am waiting for more data coming into the Pivot Trend System. Will have a post later today.

Swinger, could you post your big picture trend chart?

Bad housing data is really bad?

I missed the quick +5% gain this morning on SRS when it hit above $21.5 while I was away from my desk.

News is news. Read it objectively, don't add your interpretation on it. The thing that matters to me most is not the news itself. Instead, it is the way how market reacts after news is out. So bad-looking housing data is really bad? Market doesn't agree for the time being.

SPX bounced at SMA(10) on its daily chart, looking so strong as almost every support line for bulls works out. But could be a quick pop-up and fall hard. Let market tell us. Watch closely here.

Still holding my SRS positions.

Quick review of today's trades and new signal at close

Added another 3 winning trades in my performance list today. I was really suffering 2 of them (URE, and FAS in $9.19) last week (you would know the story if following me), but kept holding until seeing profits. Also re-entered FAS on its breakout, which turned out to be a very good trade (+6% gain). Currently, I cleared out alll my long positions and followed what the Pivot Trend System provided me, a new signal, SELL, by loading SRS at close, $20.5.

Will see how the call plays out tomorrow.

ps. I will be not at desk tomorrow morning and will have a busy afternoon. So, please expect fewer market comments through both blog and twitter.

Loaded SRS $20.5 for tomorrow.

No long positions at hand. Loaded short positions at close.

Sold 1/2 FAS $10.3

$9.75 to $10.3 +5.6% gain

15:55pm Sold the other half at $10.38, avg sold price 10.34, +6.05% gain.

FoxSwing Real Time Trading

05/18/09 Sell ES m9 @902.25

Sold the remaing 1/3 URE $3.65

avg cost 3.38, avg sold price 3.54, closed this trade with +4.7% gain.

Still holding FAS.

In FAS $9.75

Buy breakout on finance.

mental stop: $9.6

Break out on upside!

SPX 895 was taken out. Looking for long.....

Sold FAS $9.4

It didn't open above SPX 895 and 895 is acting as resistance right now. Reduce long exposure. High now: 895.05

+2.28% gain (bought at $9.19 on 5/14)

Effectively breaking out SPX 895 would be bullish for today. If that happens, I may re-enter long positions, as the Pivot Trend System remains BUY.

Don't forget to read my comments on Twitter update panel on the right (listed the latest 5). I can not put all my comments in regular posts, but will send comments through Twitter. Just keep that in mind.

Pivot Point: SPX 895

Watch closely, if it opens above SPX 895 today, a trending day could be formed. It may also indicates a trending week is on the way. Otherwise, you may need to protect your long positions.