Very Possible DownTrend in the future

Our slope of Trend line crossed downto zero on Wednesday, and remain near below zero.

On Wednesday, I said the uptrend was done. We will have a short period of oscillation and then go to next trend, the next trend is very possible a downtrend. Because there is actually no space for a up trend.

As a result, I recomend to short for an up for index.

A quick summary of this week's trades and Pivot Trend System

I had a very good start by trading SRS which was loaded last Friday, and SPY put options, with +6.4% and +4.6% gains, respectively. However, the system that I followed turned to the long side and signaled BUY. Then I have being struggling with my URE positions with average down and selling high a couple of times (you can see my previous posts with buy/sell calls on URE).

The avergage cost of URE for me $3.38 and 1/3 were sold at $3.42 (+1.18% or +0.39% for 1 size trade) and another 1/3 were sold at $3.55 (+5.03%, or +1.67% for 1 size trade), remaing the last 1/3 (today's close $3.26, -3.55%, or -1.18% for 1 size trade, unrealized loss).

I also loaded FAS at $9.19, still holding them (today's close $8.74 with -4.89% unrealized loss). In general, this week for me would be fine (by sum all the % number I listed above, +7% for 1 size trade, including unrealized loss) if I didn't loss in my SPY call options. But I did have a loss on those call options about -30%, even though sizing on this trade is not big.

Alright, where is the market at and where will it go for next week? What does Pivot Trend System provide me? SPX is pulling back from its 930 high and gets supporting on SMA(20) = 880 line for 3 days in a row. It is still too early to say that bulls have given up and bears are back in charge.

As for the Pivot Trend System, the call on long side is still valid as of now. By valid, it means it could end up with possive gains since it trigged a BUY signal (the BUY signal was given at SPX 905, so closing above 905 would confirm a valid call), or it will close its long call at the point which is above what it is right now (today's close 882). So the system simply says that it is not the time to cut loss. You will have either a higher point to cut with a smaller loss or end up with gains. I think this is the first time I explain the Pivot Trend System here.

This long call will be invalid if XLF closes below $11.38 (1.3% down from here). By invalid, it means this long call is entirely wrong. You may cut the loss immediately, or later at your own risk.

There isn't a system that can be 100% right, neither is the Pivot Trend System. However, if it turns out to be an invalid call, this will be the first bad call since I started this blog and made the system-trigged calls public from 4/23, about one month ago. Historically statistics shows the Pivot Trend System has a over 70% winning rate of its buy/sell calls. The average holding period for a call is about 4 days, with maximum 14 days on record.

Alright, we will know soon what market will do on Monday. I am currently holding 1 and 1/3 sizes positions (FAS and URE) on the long side.

Have a nice weekend and good luck on your next week's trading!

Closed call options.

They will expire today, can not hold them longer, closed them with loss

FAS almost got stopped out, low of today is $8.91 while my stop is $8.9. wow~

Still holding 1/3 URE and FAS.

14:40pm, loaded another 1/3 URE at $3.2, now 2/3 URE positions. Set stop $3.12 sharp
15:34pm, raised stop to $3.2.
15:40pm, 1/3 URE stopped out at $3.2

New trade, FAS $9.19

Stop $8.9. Feeling tomorrow will continue to be up!

Holding my long positions(FAS, URE 1/3 position, some SPY calls) into tomorrow.

sold 1/3 of URE positions at $3.42

Remaining the other 2/3. avg cost $3.38

14:53pm, sold another 1/3 at $3.55, remaining the other 1/3

Today's plan: unloading long positions

If market has a pop up (hopefully), I will close most of my long positions. Tomorrow is the opex/OE day, so rather keep cash in hand. Remember cash flow is important to a business, and trading is a business.

GL!

UpTrend finished confirmed

We can see the slope of our trend line crossed 0 today.

This indicates that this round up trend is finished.

In the following, we mostly expect some period of oscillation before another big trend

For me I'd like expect next trend is down trend. But who knows , this is bitch market.

Bears back in control?

I will give tomorrow a chance for bears to convince me. SPX is right above SMA(20) = 880 on its daily chart.

Maybe I did it wrong today, that I doubled the size of my URE positions at $3.27. So, here is the map of my URE positions now:
1 * URE (avg 3.75) -> sold 0.5 * URE at $3.92 -> bought 0.5 * URE at $3.27 -> resulting in 1 * URE at average cost $ 3.37

URE cost is not that bad, while my SPY call options are under deep water now (-50% loss).

Will see how market acts tomorrow. Good Luck!

Prepare to cut

Bad trade on long sides with URE positions. Will find a point to get most of my long positions out!

Wrong is wrong!

SP Trend till today

Red on the price: Our Trend Line
Red below: Slope of our trend line
Blue straight Line below: zero slope line

We can see, because of these two days drop, the slope of our trend line is closer to 0 than before. But whether it is going to cross zero, we still need to see. (we normally enter up trend when slope cross above zero, and we normally have down trend when slope cross below zero)

So till now we are still in the up trend and it is possible we go to ossilation and down trend in the near future.

A quick review of today's trades

I was away from my desk for the last one hour, and could not make any comments.

I loaded URE@$3.84 at yesterday's close, and re-loaded them this morning at $3.67 to make average cost be $3.75. Sold half of positions at $3.92 (+4.5% gain). I am still holding the other half URE positions and some SPY call options.


The Pivot Trend System remains its BUY signal generated from yesterday. Will see what the market will bring us tomorrow.

Good Luck!

ps. Today is a tough to trade, to sit tight and to stick to plans. In the case of such a day, my hard learning from the market tells me that you should keep your trades focusing on one side ONLY, either long or short, not both. Don't believe you are smarter enough than others to exactly know where to cover short and change to long. Focusing on one side is the way of avoiding double losses, and sometimes this is the way of converting your losses on paper into profits, if sticking to your plan.

Share with you guys.

Sold half URE, $3.92

holding the other half. avg cost $3.75

Foxswing Closed all 6 short @900.50

And long 2 ESM9 @900.25

Add more URE $3.66

When SPX hits 904. heavy volume on downside, not looking good to longs. Watching market closely.

URE avg $3.75.

A quick summary of today's trades and trade plan for tomorrow

Market had a choppy day today. As I expected from last Friday and today's morning, market remained a bearish looking towards closing bell. Low entry price on SRS helped me feel comfortable to sit tight by holding short positions.

Two trades today listed below, which I made all of them public and real time.
SRS: $19.75(avg) -- $21.015 (avg) +6.4% gain
SPY Put: $6.4 -- $6.7 +4.68% gain

It is not a bad start of this week. Sweet!

As for tomorrow, the Pivot Trend System clearly gave a BUY signal at today's close. After reviewing several charts and internal market strength, I personally feel pretty comfortable to load long positions from here (SPX 909). So as you saw, I bought URE and SPY Call options, a little heavy positions on the long side.

As always, Good Luck to your trading, as well as to my trading.

ps. the other half of URE were loaded AH at $3.85, avg cost at $3.84.

Loading URE for tomorrow

First half filled at $3.83. The other half limit order is still pending....

Hope that who followed my call on SRS last Friday made money today. A good start of this week, isn't it?

16:08PM, loaded SPY MAY 87 Call, $4.65.

The other half on URE set a limit order AH. Wow, give me a break

Buy XXXXX Shares of URE Order Number:E11CXJRM

Details

Filled at $3.83

Sold half of SRS positions, $20.75

Hit stop. Remaining the other half.

15:39PM, sold another 1/4 at $21.29

15:50PM, close SPY Put at $6.7 (loaded this morning at $6.4)

15:59PM, close the last 1/4 SRS at $21.27

Loaded URE at close $3.83

What a busy closing for me!

Expecting some support at SPX 901

Volume patterns so far look bearish. Still holding SRS loaded last Friday, avg cost $19.75

10:28AM, loaded some SPY MAY 98 PUT at $6.4

Comparing our trend line and 200 hours moving average line

Red line: our trend line

Blue line: 200 hours moving average line

Main advatages of our line: much less lagging.

of course you can say if we use short term moving average the lagging will be less. Yes, you can; however, then you will lose the main trend , your line will consist a lot of small trend, and you can not have a clear picture.