Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Mixed signals: what to do?

Market erased all day's gain in the last hour selling off. However, I don't think bears won effectivelty today. There are mixed signals from the Pivot Trend System: remaining SELL on IYR, but XLF holding very well, which could lead the market go higher, even much higher from here. VIX broke down 30 the first time in the recent eight months, which is considered to be a very bullish sign to me. Bad economic data (housing data) could not even drag the market down. I do smell some strength of the market. A big up day may be right at the corner in this week. So, I decided to close the my short positions SRS with some gains, avoiding the risk of being squeezed. If I see some weakness of the market, I would re-open short positions at any time. But for now, I am flat. Remember cash is also a position.

The uptrend since March 9th is still intact. Market is expecting a final pop-up to end this round. I don't think we are there yet, but could be very close. This round of uptrend is led by finance, and will end by finance as well with a climax upside run. If I have to give a target on this round's peak, I would say VIX 25.

Good luck to all on your trading!

6 comments:

  1. vix 25 is still a while away. hehe.

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  2. Did you buy anything yesterday for today's holding?

    Thanks!

    Alan

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  3. No, I am flat. Thinking of buying FAS on strength on finance sector

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  4. VIX down hard over 7% at 26.6 now, approaching my target 25.

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  5. Something wrong today , may be we are going to end with big red today , fas came to red now ...

    I think we may consider SRS long again ...

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  6. last gap down gap was filled. Bear has no concern now to a decent pullback

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