A quick summary of this week's trades and Pivot Trend System

I had a very good start by trading SRS which was loaded last Friday, and SPY put options, with +6.4% and +4.6% gains, respectively. However, the system that I followed turned to the long side and signaled BUY. Then I have being struggling with my URE positions with average down and selling high a couple of times (you can see my previous posts with buy/sell calls on URE).

The avergage cost of URE for me $3.38 and 1/3 were sold at $3.42 (+1.18% or +0.39% for 1 size trade) and another 1/3 were sold at $3.55 (+5.03%, or +1.67% for 1 size trade), remaing the last 1/3 (today's close $3.26, -3.55%, or -1.18% for 1 size trade, unrealized loss).

I also loaded FAS at $9.19, still holding them (today's close $8.74 with -4.89% unrealized loss). In general, this week for me would be fine (by sum all the % number I listed above, +7% for 1 size trade, including unrealized loss) if I didn't loss in my SPY call options. But I did have a loss on those call options about -30%, even though sizing on this trade is not big.

Alright, where is the market at and where will it go for next week? What does Pivot Trend System provide me? SPX is pulling back from its 930 high and gets supporting on SMA(20) = 880 line for 3 days in a row. It is still too early to say that bulls have given up and bears are back in charge.

As for the Pivot Trend System, the call on long side is still valid as of now. By valid, it means it could end up with possive gains since it trigged a BUY signal (the BUY signal was given at SPX 905, so closing above 905 would confirm a valid call), or it will close its long call at the point which is above what it is right now (today's close 882). So the system simply says that it is not the time to cut loss. You will have either a higher point to cut with a smaller loss or end up with gains. I think this is the first time I explain the Pivot Trend System here.

This long call will be invalid if XLF closes below $11.38 (1.3% down from here). By invalid, it means this long call is entirely wrong. You may cut the loss immediately, or later at your own risk.

There isn't a system that can be 100% right, neither is the Pivot Trend System. However, if it turns out to be an invalid call, this will be the first bad call since I started this blog and made the system-trigged calls public from 4/23, about one month ago. Historically statistics shows the Pivot Trend System has a over 70% winning rate of its buy/sell calls. The average holding period for a call is about 4 days, with maximum 14 days on record.

Alright, we will know soon what market will do on Monday. I am currently holding 1 and 1/3 sizes positions (FAS and URE) on the long side.

Have a nice weekend and good luck on your next week's trading!