Tomorrow, the GDP of first quarter will be released. The forecast result is -5.0%. If the result is about the same as forecast, the wall street will think this is another sign of bottom forming. However, if you look at the earnings of first quarter, I have a feeling that GDP will decline more than 6%.
The characteristics of the first quarter earing reports are:
1. profit Beat eastimation while profit drops
2. sells drops
3. Profit through cutting expence
This is very different from the ER of fourth quarter of 2008. That's the reason why I think GDP will decline more than 6%.
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Morning Post 03/03/2025 SPX
3 hours ago
I see expected -4.9% on GDP from http://finviz.com/calendar.ashx
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