My Call for Monday (4/27)

Last Friday was a very tricky day. I made the correct call for market closing higher than Thursday's close. The 2pm sell-off with stress test news was a fake one. Market was quickly puling up to erase the loss in that sell-off. However, the last 10 mins sell-off at close should be highly respected. As I stated, I closed all my long holdings in the start of that sell-off and loaded some short positions (SRS and SDS) at close and AH (see my performance panel on right). The reason that I did that is the possible scenarios in my mind as follows.

1) High possibility. Monday will be a negative day. By negative, I mean it will close lower (even much lower in real estate sector [IYR]) than last Friday's close. I will decide whether to close short positions or to sell on any rally at Monday's close to see how low it would close.

2) Still possible. Monday will close in green in a small margin. If that happens, I will add more short positions at close. And then the big picture would be more clear: a severe sell-off would be around the corner.

3)Small or tiny possibility. This case is not indicated in any way in my Pivot Trend system. But you know, everything can happen in this market, and my system can not be correct 100%. So if this happens on Monday, I would admit my system gave me a false signal and I will be careful to look into the chart to re-consider where the markt could go from there.

My target on SRS is $25.55 and on SDS is $67 for now. Of course, they will be adjusted by listening the messages from market.

Good luck, everyone!