Friday, October 16, 2009

Market trend and trading strategies

Hi all,

Haven't updated this blog for a while, as I am busy looking for a job. Alright, let's talk about the market now. What I can see is that

1) There would be an about 10% correction at the level around 1120 (it may start already now).
2) After that, it will be still a good BUY-DIP opportunity, but increasing may become slow and not as sharp as before.
3) So, good strategies on trading at this moment is that BUY DIP and SELL COVERED CALLS. You know what I mean, right?

I personally bought DRYS and sold NOV 7 calls at 0.85, an assigned 12% return in a month, not bad.

Good luck on your trading!

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Added short positions, FAZ

I added short positions FAZ around $24.7 and for a $27 target in short term. Today could be a pivot day (local high).

Friday, September 4, 2009

Happy long weekend

Market will get more interesting after labor day. Do or die, or neither? Let market tell. Be patient!

Enjoy your long weekend and good luck trading next week!

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Be patient

Market could go either way from here short term.

Your patience will pay you off.

I am not expecting market could do much before labor day.

Just take a break!

Thursday, August 27, 2009

SPX BUY signal

System shows a BUY signal if SPX stands above 1033.

Market refuses to go down, let alone down hard!

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

I am back

I was away for the last 2 days and am back now. I sold out AMD at $4.05, and still keeping MGM, and some OCT puts on market.

Signals are mixed from system. So better to have fewer positions now. I am expecting market to have a 15-20 points correction from here. But who knows ...

Manage risk!

Sunday, August 23, 2009

New high stamped

Market closed with a new high last Friday, which completely taught me a lesson to me. For my short positions, DUG, ERY and SPXU shares got stopped with some loss, while keeping OCT DUG calls and OCT SPY puts. I have to admit that I didn't do good on risk control this time, too convinced with last Monday's sizable down, and underestimated bulls engery to push market to a new high. Well, wrong is wrong.

Well, I added long positions on Friday: AMD and MGM.

AMD looks that it bottoms out. MGM is lagging while LVS shows a lot of strength (breaking out) on upside. So, I am expecting MGM to catch up from here.

Good Luck on your trading next week!

Friday, August 21, 2009

Cut, cut

This was a bad trade on short side.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Bot SPY Put

SPY OCT 97 PUT.

SPX is now right at my resistance level, 1005.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Bot ERY $18.54

Bought back my stopped DUG, but this time I bot ERY.

Good opportunity for bears

Don't get fooled by the action of bulls this morning. Instead, it is a very good opportunity to open or add more short positions. I would stay away from financials, but focus on commodity related stocks or techs. Market is on the way of heading down, A MUST!

My best selections here are DUG and DTO for shorting oil-related, ZSL/DZZ for shorting silver/gold, and QID for shorting techs.

I will load some calls on DUG.

GL!

As is planned, I bought more DUG shares at $17.00 and DUG OCT calls. DUG option max pain is $17 on Friday. Let's see how that plays. Same stops.

1/2 DUG shares were stopped out at $16.75. Will revisit.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

System triggered SELL

This is an intermediate sell signal on SPX, with stop at 1015.

I would give market some room of upside (better to fill Monday's gap) to finish its dead cat bounce and patiently add short positions. My first batch will start around SPX 1000, if market permits.

I decided to load DUG AH at $17.37, as upside for market is limited. Stops are $16.75 for 1/2, and $16.35 for 1/2.

Friday, August 14, 2009

Individual stocks requested by readers

Please keep in mind the following three points before I outline buy/sell/stop entries for requested individual stocks.

1) This is for education purpose only, not for any investment or trading advices.
2) The new system trades 2 hours time frame, which is designed for swinging positions ranging from 2 hours to weeks, or even months. Typically, holding periods should be around 1-2 weeks.
3) All stops should be adjusted up (on long) or down (on short) with dynamic price movement. The stops I list below are for today's closing. A closing 2 hours bar price is only considered for buy/sell/stop. Prices within a 2 hours bar could be used for your reference.

1) ANR: BUY was triggered on $33.16, stop at $33.46.
2) CLF: BUY was triggered on $ 27.91, stop at $27.29.
3) TIE: BUY was triggered on $8.18, stop at $8.01.
4) AVNR: sorry, daily average volume (over last 250 trading days) is not over 1M shares.
5) YGE: Short was triggered on 7/29 at $13.66, stop at $13.39, currently in downtrend.
6) HBAN: BUY was triggered on 7/27 at $3.54, stop at $4.36.
7) STP: Shorted was triggered on 8/6 at$18.62, stop at $18.29.
8) CENX: BUY was triggered on $11.21, stop at $10.58.
9) PMI: Short was triggered on 8/10 at $2.69, stop at $2.79.
10) DRYS: BUY was triggered on $6.47, stop at $6.09.
11) UAUA: BUY was triggered on 7/15 at $3.37, stop at $5.64. This is really a good one, I wish I had implemented this system back in June.
12) JASO: Short was triggered on $4.6, stop at $4.77.
13) KFN: BUY was just triggered at today's close $3.04, stop at $2.70. The last long trade started at $1.02 on 7/21. Will like to see how this plays.
14) MFC: Short was triggered on 8/6 at $21.92, stop at $20.92.

Opex next week

Market ended today with loss and entered into next week (opex day on Friday) with late afternoon rally. It may resume its uptrend next week, as there is no "bad" news at all that could drag down market hard. Retails? Consumer sentiment? I could not see one.

1) PTrend system suggests to go up.
2) My FAZ trade was good by locking profits in time.
3) My MGM load works well, and decided to hold into next week. System suggests a stop on $8.35. The stop will be raised if MGM goes up.
4) I am currently not intending to open new long positions AH.
5) I have implemented a system focusing time frame on 2 hours chart, which means positions could be hold for days as swing trading. The system suggests all buy, sell and stop prices for a stock. I like to simply help to take a look at stocks for you from that system, if you want to name it. The only requirement is that stock price should be over $2 with daily average volume over 1M shares.

Have a good weekend all!

Euro Stoped out @1.4210

ES short closed and long ES @995.25

For Euro, doesn't have plan now

URE $5.1 stop out, FAZ $26.69 lock profits

Loading more MGM around $8.7

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Bot FAZ $25.14 AH

I can not help loading short positions. Tight stop at $24.75 on 2 hour closing bar (intra-bar doesn't count!).

Long Euro futures @1.4291

Euro is hard to trade these two months since it doesn't have clear trend. Our system for Euro ask we long Euro U9 @ 1.4291 and we did it on lindwadock account. the stop price for this trade will be 1.4211. and the first target will be break 1.4320 level and go to challenge 1.4450.

also The reverse swing system for ES lost a big one from 892.25 to 993.25. and Normally after a big loss, the system will profit in the following several trades. today, the system ask to short @1006.25 after close a long from 993.25 to 1006.25.

Set Stop on URE, $5.1

for today.

SPX short term trend pivot at 1000.48.

Sold FXP

Sold FXP with a small profit.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Tough to trade this market

It is tough to trade this market at this moment, for either bulls or bears. So a good strategy would be sticking to your plan, don't move too much unless you have a very good reason to change.

1) System suggests to continue to go up. I loaded URE after cutting SRS positions, but not profitable on URE positions though. Holding URE.
2) DUG covered calls protect my DUG positions today. I will let the guard on until 8/21 opex day.
3) MGM is disappointing, with +4% at open, but closing today with loss. It still fits into my set ups: above SM200, with light volume on correction. Stop still at $7.95
4) FXP is more disappointing today, closed in red with HK (-3%) and China (-5%) crashing yesterday. Holding it.

GL!

Cut all SRS and QID

Hold FXP;
MGM looks good;
DUG covered calls work fine;

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Protect short positions

Today is a down day, oh yeah! My sell limit orders were not triggered while I was away from desk. My short positions are doing well. DUG, QID and FXP are gaining profits. However, I list as follows what I smell and see, and what I am going to do or already did, to protect short positions.

Findings:
1) Ptrend system triggered a BUY signal at today's close, closing its losing SELL call.
2) QQQQ and XLE bounced right at support (MA 20 on daily chart) intraday, indicating that bulls are not giving up and still buying at support. Surely they don't give up, at least not this easily.
3) IYR, to be fair, can only be considered as correction technically after surging days, esp with smaller volume on downside in these two days.
4) SPY corrected its overbought conditions, which may get bulls ready for another pop-up.

Do's:
1) Sold DUG AUG 17 covered all at 0.6. Not bad profits, 17-16.1(cost)+0.6, even if calls are exercised on 8/21.
2) Prepare to sell QID and SRS either today's AH or early tomorrow when seeing a little bit more weakness.
3) If market regains its strength early tomorrow, reverse to long.
4) Added a long position into my porfolio AH, MGM at $8.3. MGM stands above it MA200, retractment with light volume today. 1st target $11, 2nd target $14, stop $7.95.
5) Keep holding FXP as I see China market is in question, and so are emerging markets (BRIC).

Anyway, good luck and control your risk on trading!

Set limit orders on QID and DUG

I will be away from 10AM, and set sell limit orders for QID $27.45, DUG $17.9. I will continue holding them, if those limit orders are not hit today. FXP and SRS will be held.


Good luck!

Monday, August 10, 2009

Holding shorts

Hey, market shows today some weakness after last Friday's surge with good job data. I am still holding all my short positions: SRS, DUG, QID and FXP. SRS is recovering from deep water, QID is now at break even point, while DUG and FXP are my winning positions so far, though just a little green. The entire portfolio is still on the way of recovering and hopefully gaining in a few days.

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Heavy short

I bought back 1/2 SRS that I cut yesterday. Currently holding pretty heavy short positions at hand: DUG 2 sizes, QID 1 size, SRS 1.5 sizes.

Goldman's guy claimed today that a new bull market has begun, which to me is a significant sign of market topping. The really trustable charts are monthly charts. You will get a clear picture from reading them. Bull markets never begin the way as it is right now.

My boss cleared all his personal long portfolios two days ago, as he thought market right now is way over-priced.

Good Luck!

Loaded QID, Added DUG

more shorts from here

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Rule of game

Statistically speaking, trading is a game with 10% winner, 20% flat and the rest losers. The 1st rule in this game is that you have to be in this game to play. Your 1st job is to control your risk and don't put all your eggs in a single basket. To me and from what I have learned in a hard way, position sizing is the most important key that you are able to do and you are able to do well.

This simple rule will at least pull you out of losers long term.

I read today's post on xtrend and wish Sol best luck!

bought SRS and DUG

SRS at $13.3, stop at $12.95
DUG at $16.1, stop at $15.75

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Time to load short positions

Bot SRS at close $15.36. Sold FAS for some gains (didn't see at high range of today).

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

market moves in range

It seems that market could go nowhere, up there and down here. So my current trading strategy would be sell high and buy low in the range that I would feel comfortable with.

I closed half SRS positions at $16.7 today, and am holding both long and short positions on individual stocks. My system suggests an up day for tomorrow. Finance could be leading.

Let's see how it plays.

Monday, July 27, 2009

loaded more SRS AH

SRS has been down 4 days in a row. I am expecting its bouncing from here. $1 gain will be good to me. I will stop them if I see market regains its strength tomorrow.


Control your position sizes to reduce risk! GL!

Friday, July 24, 2009

Good weekend, all

Nothing to say about the market. It it wants crazy, then let it go. Reducing your risk on your portfolio is always a number one job in this game.

I am still holding SRS positions (under deep water, hmm...) and will be ready to average down if SPX goes above 1000 next week.

Good luck on your trading next week!

Thursday, July 23, 2009

cut FAZ $41.52

market is so strong...

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Still holding short positions SRS, FAZ

Though I missed to lock some gains early this morning (about 4% and 2% each) on short positions. These two positions are almost at initial cost with today's closing prices. Hold them into tomorrow.

I do have long positions on some individual stocks, as I told via twitter. However, I don't want to advertise individual stocks here, as this blog is mainly used to share buy and sell signals for general market or sectors from trading systems. And also small volume stocks could be easily manipulated.

Good luck on your trading!

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

re-entered SRS $18.22 AH

Hope that I could sit tight this time.

Hard to be a bear!

sold SRS $18.42

flat on this trade!

Will revisit some time later

Bought FAZ $41.46

short finance on its weakness

Monday, July 20, 2009

Bought SRS, $18.35

I am bearish this week.

Friday, July 17, 2009

This OE week is almost done

ERs from some big names lifted market 4 days in a row. We are almost at the June high. I do see some big names like AAPL, GS breaking out and new highs for them printed. However, I am well ready to accumulate short positions. SRS, TZA, FAZ will my favorate again. A pullback is right at the corner.


Good weekend, all!

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

FoxSwing Real Time Trading index futures

07/15/09 11:41 Add one short @922.50
07/13/09 14:34 Short ES U9 @892.75

07/13/09 14:34 Cover two Longs @ 892.75
07/08/09 12:26 Long one more ES U9 @867.25
07/02/09 12:43 Long ES U9 @ 897.50

07/02/09 12:43 Cover short @ 897.50
06/25/09 12:44 Short ES U9 @912.25

06/25/09 12:44 Cover Long @ 912.25
06/22/09 11:24 Long ES U9 @ 897.50

06/22/09 11:24 Cover short @ 897.50
06/19/09 14:44 Short ES U9 @913.50

06/19/09 14:44 Cover Long @913.50
06/15/09 11:20 Long ES U9 @918.50

06/15/09 11:20 Cover Short @918.50
06/09/09 14:24 Short ES U9 @939.50

06/09/09 14:24 Cover Long @939.50
06/08/09 12:44 Long ES U9 @924.75

Again, please don't confuse. We have two systems here:
FoxSwing: Trade SP index (ES) futures.
Pivot: Trade ETFs

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

sold half SRS $21.48

Mkt seems to refuse going down. Be protective.

Monday, July 13, 2009

loaded SRS $20.95

Following the SELL signal triggered by the Pivot Trend System at close. Also this confirms the sell signal from FoxSwing trading system.


GL, all~!

sold the other half FAS around $42.5

FoxSwing Real Time Trading index futures

07/13/09 14:34 Short ES U9 @892.75 (I did this trade in IB)
Underlying,Action,Quantity,Price,Time,Date,Exch.,Account,Order Ref.,Clearing,
ES,SLD,1,893.00,18:50:39,20090713,GLOBEX,UXXXX,,,

07/13/09 14:34 Cover two Longs @ 892.75
07/08/09 12:26 Long one more ES U9 @867.25
07/02/09 12:43 Long ES U9 @ 897.50

07/02/09 12:43 Cover short @ 897.50
06/25/09 12:44 Short ES U9 @912.25

06/25/09 12:44 Cover Long @ 912.25
06/22/09 11:24 Long ES U9 @ 897.50

06/22/09 11:24 Cover short @ 897.50
06/19/09 14:44 Short ES U9 @913.50

06/19/09 14:44 Cover Long @913.50
06/15/09 11:20 Long ES U9 @918.50

06/15/09 11:20 Cover Short @918.50
06/09/09 14:24 Short ES U9 @939.50

06/09/09 14:24 Cover Long @939.50
06/08/09 12:44 Long ES U9 @924.75

Again, please don't confuse. We have two systems here:
FoxSwing: Trade SP index (ES) futures.
Pivot: Trade ETFs

sold half FAS $41.6 here, TNA $24.5

FAS: cost at $7.88 * 5

TNA: loaded at $23.3 last Friday. Target reached.

Thursday, July 9, 2009

financials are leading

after I "upgraded" XLF at close of yesterday through comments in my last post and through twitter.

Due to R.S. on FAS, I am not allowed to sell FAS holdings. I have to either buy FAZ or sell covered calls or buy puts on financials if I want to lock profit.

I am watching it closely.
URE sucks today!

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Sold all FAZ calls at $1.8

cost at $1.15, over +55% gain

Still holding all my advertised long positions, though they are pretty under water.

FoxSwing Real Time Trading index futures

07/08/09 12:26 Long one more ES U9 @867.25
07/02/09 12:43 Long ES U9 @ 897.50

07/02/09 12:43 Cover short @ 897.50
06/25/09 12:44 Short ES U9 @912.25

06/25/09 12:44 Cover Long @ 912.25
06/22/09 11:24 Long ES U9 @ 897.50

06/22/09 11:24 Cover short @ 897.50
06/19/09 14:44 Short ES U9 @913.50

06/19/09 14:44 Cover Long @913.50
06/15/09 11:20 Long ES U9 @918.50

06/15/09 11:20 Cover Short @918.50
06/09/09 14:24 Short ES U9 @939.50

06/09/09 14:24 Cover Long @939.50
06/08/09 12:44 Long ES U9 @924.75

Again, please don't confuse. We have two systems here:
FoxSwing: Trade SP index (ES) futures.
Pivot: Trade ETFs

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Bot FAS $7.88

Hope this is a deal!

Monday, July 6, 2009

holding long positions into tomorrow

IYR 2% up today, is the winner among all the other sectors/industries. Market rallied from the morning low and ended in green.

Not bad for my URE long. Holding them as the Pivot Trend System suggests.

Thursday, July 2, 2009

Loaded URE AH

The Pivot Trend System strongly indicates a BUY signal, on almost all market, IYR, FAS, SPY, QQQQ.

It is against my feeling towards the current market. However, I bought URE AH, 1 size though.

Will see how market goes after holiday.

Happy holiday, all!

Sold the other SRS at $20.8

All SRS was out. about +2.5% gain in average.

FoxSwing Real Time Trading index futures

07/02/09 12:43 Long ES U9 @ 897.50

07/02/09 12:43 Cover short @ 897.50
06/25/09 12:44 Short ES U9 @912.25

06/25/09 12:44 Cover Long @ 912.25
06/22/09 11:24 Long ES U9 @ 897.50

06/22/09 11:24 Cover short @ 897.50
06/19/09 14:44 Short ES U9 @913.50

06/19/09 14:44 Cover Long @913.50
06/15/09 11:20 Long ES U9 @918.50

06/15/09 11:20 Cover Short @918.50
06/09/09 14:24 Short ES U9 @939.50

06/09/09 14:24 Cover Long @939.50
06/08/09 12:44 Long ES U9 @924.75

Again, please don't confuse. We have two systems here:
FoxSwing: Trade SP index (ES) futures.
Pivot: Trade ETFs

sold 1 size SRS at $20.25

I know it looks bears in control today. But I want to be protective.

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

load more SRS at $19.64

now holding 2 sizes of SRS avg cost $20.04.

System keeps SELL signal into tomorrow.

Sold all FAZ at $4.69

Locked profits (loaded yesterday at $4.55).

Monday, June 29, 2009

bot FAZ $4.55

This could be a quick trade.

This trade follows a sell signal on finance triggered by the Pivot Trend System at today's close.

The Pivot Trend System is not doing great recently, which made two losing calls in a row. This rarely happens. However, on the other hand, it may be now on the way to its over 70% winning rate again. Every system/trader has its dog days.

Just move on with risk management.

Start to close some long positions

Closed CMCSA calls.

Still holding SRS positions.

Friday, June 26, 2009

Market strength

I am actually not so bearish. SRS is the position following my Pivot Trend System.

I also have some bullish ideas like CMCSA, CIEN, GLD, which I already loaded calls in.

I am currently looking at V and will load some calls too.

Today, big names are holding up great, like AAPL, AMZN, MA, GS, ...

As a trader, you must be able to be as flexible as market.

Loaded some FAZ Oct 5 call

Cost at $1.15, target is for a double. This is a med-term play.

Also another plan is to long Gold from here.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

sold the other URE $3.43, and loaded SRS

System signaled a SELL on IYR.

Cleared out all FAS and URE long positions, and loaded SRS at close, $20.45.

Sold 1/2 URE $3.38

IYR is relatively too weak.

15:55pm sold the other 1/2 FAS at $8.84

FoxSwing Real Time Trading index futures

06/25/09 12:44 Short ES U9 @912.25

06/25/09 12:44 Cover Long @ 912.25
06/22/09 11:24 Long ES U9 @ 897.50

06/22/09 11:24 Cover short @ 897.50
06/19/09 14:44 Short ES U9 @913.50

06/19/09 14:44 Cover Long @913.50
06/15/09 11:20 Long ES U9 @918.50

06/15/09 11:20 Cover Short @918.50
06/09/09 14:24 Short ES U9 @939.50

06/09/09 14:24 Cover Long @939.50
06/08/09 12:44 Long ES U9 @924.75

Again, please don't confuse. We have two systems here:
FoxSwing: Trade SP index (ES) futures.
Pivot: Trade ETFs

SPX above yesterday's high

Up to fill the gap on Monday, which is about 920.

Stay long and sit tight.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Market closed back to where it was open

Positions and plan unchanged. Stay long with FAS and URE.

Bulls succeeded to pull SPX back above DMA200 and DMA50, though slightly.

Looks like I was wrong!

Hmmmmmmmm..................

Before FED

I again double checked all charts and signals from the Pivot Trend System. None of indication points to selling or even locking profits. But it is Fed day, with expection of up-down movement after 2:15pm.

I decided to hold long positions into it. You can lock some profits or add short positions to hedge, if you don't feel comfortable with your long position sizes.

Watch closely, and if something big happens, be quick!

Gap up open

If SPX opens above 905, gap may not be filled. Then it will probably an "open high and go higher" day.

As I am writing this, ES is right at 898-899, which is about SPX 905. Need to see whether it will hold up before market open.

This didn't happen. You should have a way of locking profits or adding hedging.

Market goes higher, even with not good new housing data. Strong internal strength.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Consolidation day

My plan doesn't change, staying long with FAS (half) and URE positions into FOMC tomorrow.


Good Luck!

Sold some FAS at $8.4

these were loaded yesterday at $8.09 (+3.8%)

Monday, June 22, 2009

Guys (including Pivot) Be Caution




From my trend trendline, the SP is already in the down side. The slope of trend line is very negative. Although foxswing is longing, I'd like to warn you (FoxSwing did very bad in the big trend previously, which is the point we want to improve now). If you have heavy long positions. you should cover some if there is an up in the near future.

Bot FAS and URE back at close

Bot back FAS and URE shares that I sold at last Friday's close.

Stay long.

FoxSwing Real Time Trading index futures

06/22/09 11:24 Long ES U9 @ 897.50

06/22/09 11:24 Cover short @ 897.50
06/19/09 14:44 Short ES U9 @913.50

06/19/09 14:44 Cover Long @913.50
06/15/09 11:20 Long ES U9 @918.50

06/15/09 11:20 Cover Short @918.50
06/09/09 14:24 Short ES U9 @939.50

06/09/09 14:24 Cover Long @939.50
06/08/09 12:44 Long ES U9 @924.75

Again, please don't confuse. We have two systems here:
FoxSwing: Trade SP index (ES) futures.
Pivot: Trade ETFs

Friday, June 19, 2009

Sold half holding on URE and FAS

Reduced some long exposure over weekend.

Pivot Trend System remains BUY and is expecting market up into early next week.

Have a good weekend, all!

FoxSwing Real Time Trading index futures

06/19/09 14:44 Short ES U9 @913.50

06/19/09 14:44 Cover Long @913.50
06/15/09 11:20 Long ES U9 @918.50

06/15/09 11:20 Cover Short @918.50
06/09/09 14:24 Short ES U9 @939.50

06/09/09 14:24 Cover Long @939.50
06/08/09 12:44 Long ES U9 @924.75

EURUSD breaks out

I am long URE and FAS now

Pretty busy recently, and wish I had time to post more here.

Pivot Trend System remains BUY and is expecting a pop-up to end its call.

Let's see how that plays out.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

FoxSwing 10 years results


Foxswing system is updated quarterly.
From 1998 to 2008, we have 4 of 44 quarters lose money
Blue Bar is Yearly profit
Red Bar is yearly max down

Obama to axe bank agency in financial overhaul

Tomorrow will be very intereting

If Street don't like this, it will another big down.

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN1630800320090617?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews
By Kevin Drawbaugh
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Obama administration plans to streamline U.S. bank oversight and put the Federal Reserve in charge of monitoring big-picture economic risks in a sweeping regulatory overhaul to be formally unveiled on Wednesday, a senior administration official said.
The Office of Thrift Supervision, a Treasury Department unit, would be closed and the federal charter under which savings and loans operate eliminated under the plan, the official told reporters on a conference call on Tuesday.
The Fed would work in conjunction with a council of other regulators, to be chaired by Treasury, on monitoring "systemic risk" under the plan.
The aim is to avert future problems like the severe banking and capital markets crisis that has hammered economies worldwide since early 2008, without shackling firms so tightly that they cannot drive economic growth.
"There is going to be streamlining, consolidation ... so that you don't find people falling through the gaps," President Barack Obama told reporters earlier on Tuesday.
"Whether it's on the consumer protection side, the investor protection side, the systemic risks ... It's going to be a much more effectively integrated system than previously," he said.
The administration has been discussing for six months how best to tighten bank and market regulation in response to the crisis, with the European Union moving on a similar track, more quickly in some areas than the United States.
Months of debate lie ahead in the U.S. Congress, with many of the proposed changes requiring legislation. Senate and House of Representatives committees have scheduled more than a dozen hearings between now and mid-July.
Obama on Wednesday will also call for establishment of an independent consumer financial products watchdog agency to write and enforce rules on fair lending and other matters.
Other administration goals include forcing financial groups to hold more capital so they can better survive tough times, and bringing more transparency and accountability to exotic financial markets that in recent years expanded far beyond the government's ability to keep track of them.
OBAMA SEES 'HEAVY LIFT' ON REFORM PLAN
The president pledged to pursue major changes, but warned it will be a "heavy lift" politically with special interests already offering opposition. Earlier on Tuesday, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the nation's largest business lobbying group, said it opposes key parts of the plan.
The administration wants to give the Fed new powers to police systemic risk as a way to make sure that the failure of one large company -- like bailed-out mega-insurer American International Group, for instance -- does not destabilize the broader economy.
It also will propose empowering the government to seize and unwind large, troubled companies. Part of the proposal would require large, "Tier One" companies to maintain contingency plans for their unwinding in case of future trouble.
The administration will also seek to rein in markets for securitized debt and over-the-counter derivatives, as well as more regulation of money market mutual funds, credit rating agencies and hedge funds.
It will push for changes in corporate governance that could give shareholders more power to restrain executive compensation, as well.
"We are going to put forward a very strong set of regulatory measures ... We expect that Congress will work swiftly to get these laws in place," Obama said.
"But it is going to be as usual, a heavy lift ... You'll hear a lot of chatter about 'We don't need more regulation' and 'government needs to get off our backs,'" Obama added.
"There is a short memory, unfortunately, and I think that's what some of the special interests and lobbyists are going to be counting on, that somehow we've forgotten the disaster that arose out of their reckless behavior. And I'm going to keep on reminding them so we make sure that we get something in place that prevents this kind of situation from happening again."
House Democratic leader Steny Hoyer said on Tuesday that the House will deal with financial regulation reform in late July or soon after Congress' August recess. The outlook in the Senate, which moves more slowly, was unclear.
(Reporting by Kevin Drawbaugh; Additional reporting by Corbett Daly, Karey Wutkowski, Patrick Rucker, Thomas Ferraro, Rachelle Younglai and Emily Kaiser; Editing by Gary Hill)

Bought URE at close, $3.55

Monday, June 15, 2009

14:00PM, bought FAS, $9.73

Yes, I am buying. You got to be in this game to know what is happening.

FoxSwing Real Time Trading index futures

06/15/09 11:20 Long ES U9 @918.50

06/15/09 11:20 Cover Short @918.50
06/09/09 14:24 Short ES U9 @939.50

06/09/09 14:24 Cover Long @939.50
06/08/09 12:44 Long ES U9 @924.75

This system is still in the testing, although its 12-year test result is very good. For 12 years start from 1998 to 2009 (till May 31), average profit per year is 400 points (from 09/01/2008 the test is real time, and we even made our biggest profit for the quarter 09/01/2008 to 11/30/2008).

However, this system also has high maxdown. That's why we still in testing and further developing. For example, the last trade, we started @939.50, while the ES even went to more than 959, that's $1000 paper loss, and if you can not tolerate, you will cut and loss.

I will update the realtime signal here, but please be caution and please don't follow it if you want to daytrade and cannot loss big.

Sunday, June 14, 2009

Sunday afternoon post

Next week will be an opex week. Market could be as tricky as possible. I believe experienced traders will watch more, but move less. In general, bulls are little by little lacking of their strength of pushing the market higher. But timing is everything for a trade. It is probably not the time to go with heavy short positions, even though you have a very strong bearish mind.

The Pivot Trend System remains its buy signal as of last Friday, but as you know, the system is a short term player. As for me, I am flat with no positions at hand.

By the way, I have a plan of improving the current Pivot Trend System and hope that I have time to work on it.

Hope all had a relaxing weekend.

Friday, June 12, 2009

Cut all FAS, $10.33

I need to take a break on trading

Thursday, June 11, 2009

No much to say, still buy signal

The Pivot Trend System remains BUY on XLF and IYR.
I am still holding FAS.

watch 1:00 30-year bonds auction

If its rate still goes higher,
then today we will back to 940 again



Released on 6/11/2009 1:00:00 PM For 6/11/2009 1:00:00 PM
Auction Results
Bid/Cover
2.68
Total Amount
$11 B
Yield Awarded
4.720%

Bot FAS, $10.45

Chasing high, with tight stop.

10:15AM, Bot GS 145 Call, $4.9, targeting $6.5 today. Today may be a strong trending day.

13:24PM, Sold GS calls at $5.2, GS is slow and I will be away from my desk for a while. Small profits.

Pre-market watch

1) Better than expected retail sales and initial jobless claim numbers. ++

2) High treasury yield --

3) QCOM good 3Q forecast +

Market is pretty much flat, mixed with "bad" and "good" news. Again, let us see how market reacts after open.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

A Big day tomorrow?

Recent market is very interesting. Market don't want to go to anywhere. No matter, what happened in opening or during the day, it pulled back to almost its origin. Is it the consolidation of 940 level? Might be.

In my view, tomorrow is a decision point for market. Tomorrow we will have two important data, one is retail and the other is jobless. I think the retailer is more important than jobless.

The retail is forecasted 0.6% increase. However, personally, I think it will be disappointed.

The jobless is forecasted 625K. This one I think it will top the estimate. If it is larger, I think people will still accept it since people will think it is because of the bankruptcy of GM last week.

So if the retail bad and jobless good, it still will be a bad day
if retail is good, market will soar to sky, even the jobless is bad.

That's my 2cent.
Welcome your comments.

New trade plan for tomorrow (6/11)

1) Expecting a lower open/pullback at tomorrow's open
2) Will load URE/FAS if the expected pullback happens. The comfortable loading prices for me are URE: $3.8-$3.85; FAS: $10-$10.1
3) The stops for 2) will be today's lows, if you wanna set stops. (I may stop out positions according to what my system gives me, like cut URE positions this morning). But surely prices lower than today's low would let me pay more attentions to and carefully review the market movement.
4) If 1) doesn't happen (open high and go higher), buy on breakout with tight stops.
5) The Pivot Trend System confirms a BUY signal at today's close. Will see how that plays out.
6) This plan is for short-term play only.

Cut URE $4.09

Heavy volume on downside.

11:08AM, sold half SRS calls at $3.6 (loaded at $3).

12:10PM, bot SPY 95 June puts at $2.10, expecting a target $2.4 today.

13:03PM, SPY puts reached target $2.4. Closed them.

14:05PM, sold the other half SRS calls at $4

I am flat with no positions now. The loss of SRS cut was made up for.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Nothing to say in this non-moving market

Market up here, down there. Still stick to my plan and holdings

1) 1 size URE loaded with cost at $4.13.
2) SRS July 16 Calls for med-term play, cost at $3
3) Short term is up, according to the Pivot Trend System.

FoxSwing Real Time Trading index futures

06/09/09 14:24 Short ES U9 @939.50

06/09/09 14:24 Cover Long @939.50
06/08/09 12:44 Long ES U9 @924.75

Sold the remaining SRS, $17.84

As is planned.

12:11PM, as EURO stands above 1.40 firmly, market is expecting to go up. I added some XLF July 12 calls here.

Monday, June 8, 2009

Positions Updated as of 6/8

1) 1 size SRS due to sell order not filled AH. Plan to sell them early tomorrow.
2) 1 size URE loaded AH at $4.13, following the call from the Pivot Trend System.
3) SRS July 16 Calls for med-term play, cost at $3
4) All comments and especially some market analysis are very welcome!

And my comments in the previous post's comment section. Just in case you missed it in your RSS on comments.

"To the 2nd, yes, I was pointing that IYR was a sell on Friday, and expecting a quick -5% down in 1 or 2 days. Today's sizable gap down and going lower in the morning did start the way I was expecting. However, market is always full of uncertainties. The last 1hr pulling up was showing market internal strength, esp for finance sector including part of real estate.

I think that the system provided at today's close (BUY signal on IYR) makes sense to me, as timing is also a critical factor for trading the market. No quick 5% down today, and plus the huge volume in the last hour's pop, destroyed Friday's SELL setup on IYR, and triggered BUY.

The system is flexible, and hope traders like us are flexible too."

New system signal

The Pivot Trend System turned around at today's close, providing a BUY signal on IYR. A careful look on the system shows that the last call of SELL on IYR was a bad one, ending with about -6% loss on IYR.

To me, my plan will try to dump all SRS positions and load URE AH for tomorrow.

Bought back SRS at $17.8

Got back the size of SRS that I sold earlier today at $18.17.

Hold on!! There is a question with this call according to the Pivot Trend System, reviewing it right now, which means I could turn bullish from now for tomorrow. Looking now....

Did you get the signal from C2?

To our subscriber?

@12:44 Today, Our FoxSwing System Signal:

Long ES U9 @924.75

Sold 1 size SRS, $18.17

These were loaded at $17.7 last Friday. Still remaining the other 2 sizes of SRS

Friday, June 5, 2009

Friday closing call: hold short positions into next week

1) The Pivot Trend System remains SELL signals on both XLF and IYR. It also indicates a 5% down on IYR (target around $33.4) in the next 1-2 trading days, which sets a target about $19.5 for SRS. The downside could potentially be more than this.

2) If IYR closes above $35.6, the above indication will be invalid. That is where my stop is. Careful review will then be needed.

3) I loaded the 3rd size of SRS back at $17.7 before close, now holding 3 sizes of SRS positions with avg cost $19.06 for this play. Also loaded some SRS calls as med-term positions early morning. To me, I feel comfortable about holding them into next week.

4) Have a good weekend, and good trading next week.

Finance is red

Looks like that the SELL call triggered yesterday from the Pivot Trend System on XLF is not bad.

Expecting a sell-off towards close. Good job numbers could not help bulls hold on highs. Market is weakening with dollars bouncing hard.

I loaded some med-term short positions, like SRS July calls as advertised in Twitter.

EURUSD is breaking down hard. If you read the comments in one of my other posts this morning, you would know that I was reading EURO when pre-market was pushing up. Now I am reading it again.

Sold 1 size SRS, $17.1

the last size was bought at $17.4. Remaining the other 2 sizes.

Market could go lower after I sold some. But I have the other 2 sizes to play out.

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Quick summary and a new signal triggered

1) I missed an 8% profit by not following the Pivot Trend System's BUY signal on XLF at yesterday's close (by playing FAS). Well, I do make bad decisions and mistakes, which are naturally inevitable for any traders/investors. The more important thing is that you do have your PLAN-B to make up for it to reduce your loss or even turn bad decisions to a winning trade at the end.

2) The Pivot Trend System triggered a new signal on finance: SELL. It is not typical for the system to turn around buy/sell signals so quickly on XLF. The average holding periods for XLF by the system is between 1 and 2 weeks. It may indicate something unusual is coming soon, that I can not tell or confirm at this moment.

3) I loaded the 3rd size of SRS postions before close at $17.4, making the cost of my total 3 sizes of SRS be $18.86. How many total sizes can I add? Or what is each size should I play? That is a money management/risk control question, the answer of which really depends on individual's plans/goals/risk tolerance. To me, I have a total of 5-6 sizes to play.

4) Good Luck!

New plan on XLF

If XLF closes above $12.38, I will short it by loading FAZ at close. This is from the Pivot Trend System

I didn't follow the yesterday's system signal on XLF (buy). That was a bad decision.

Still suffering with my SRS positions. I can not make 100% winning trades, neither the Pivot Trend System. For someone new here, the Pivot Trend System indicates an over 70% winning rate historically. I believe the performance of my real time calls listed on the right panel is proving it.

Will keep you updated.

15:53PM, I may be crazy that I loaded another size of SRS at $17.4, currently holding 3 sizes of SRS avg cost at $18.86

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Quick summary and signal analysis

Today for me is mixed. Good that I closed FAZ positions by gaining +8% profits. Bad that SRS was red in such an over 1% market down day.

Tech and real estate are holding well overall. USD bouncing led energy and commodity stocks (XLE, XLB) down hard. That is not what bears (or I) liked to see. Typically, pullback from commodity looks healthy to the broad market. Bears really want to see tech and finance leading the market down hard, but this didn't happen today.

The Pivot Trend System remains sell signal on IRY, while however, reversed the signal on XLF from sell to buy at today's close. So it is unclear for tomorrow's direction by these mixed signals. Buying FAS AH to hedge SRS positions may not be a bad idea. I am still thinking of doing this.

Monday's gap on SPY was so close to fill today, but not. If markets leaves this unfilled gap this week, what I read from it is that it is reaching a climax run, meaning that a real downside run starts next week.

I bought more SRS at $18.6 before market close, average down the orignal SRS positions, with average cost $19.59 right now. This could be a bad move, but I will give a try with a tight stop.

Good luck, as always!

Sold FAZ at $4.86

+8.48% on this trade, reducing some short exposure.

Forgot to mention loading SRS at $18.6 to average down. Now average cost of SRS is $19.59

Buy XXXX Shares of SRS
Order Number:F03BVCLT
Details Filled at $18.60

New plan on the trade of FAZ

If XLF closes below $12.10 today, I will lock profits on the trade of FAZ (cost at $4.48).

No new plan on the SRS trade for now.

My potential intraday locking profit point is SPX 915+/- 1, if this happens before closing bell.

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Position update: No change

Still holding FAZ and SRS as short positions. Costs show in the performance panel on the right.

XLF and IYR are down about 1.5% while market (SPX) remains flat.

Hope that I won't get burned tomorrow. Let's see.

To the subscriber

Thanks for your following message, subscriber

Anonymous said...
btw, I subscribed to your FoxSwing system last night, but didn't receive any notifications or emails or anything. Was anything sent out?And when does the Pivot system go into Collective?


We saw your subscription on C2 and We received email from C2 on 10PM yesterday. you will receive signals once we have actions in the future.

New subscriber to FoxSwing
Monday, June 1, 2009 10:02 PM
From:
"coll2@collective2.com"
Add sender to Contacts

We are now short ES m9, We did short @ 941.5 yesterday.

For the Pivot system, if our subscriber request, we will consider to put it on C2.

If you have any further question, please don't hesitate to contact us

Monday, June 1, 2009

Loaded FAZ $4.48 at close

The Pivot Trend System confirmed a SELL signal on XLF.

As of 10:15AM, VIX is green in such a big up day?

LOL~

VIX
29.020.100.35%

Saturday, May 30, 2009

ES Picture till may29



We can see after the slope of the trend line first crossed down to zero on may 13, it oscillated around the zero, and the trend line is almost flat. This is what I said previously, the oscillation period. And I suggested that in this period, because mostly the next trend is down, we can short on an up for index.


Recently, some experts said the sp can reach 1050. However, although it is a possibility, I really double it. I still insist that next trend is down.


But, if the SP break 940 level, we really need be serious about the uptrend is the next.

Friday, May 29, 2009

Have a good weekend all

Don't read the last minutes' pulling up too much. It could be the end-of-month window dressing, or some index/portfolio rebalancing, or GM-related, or whatever.

Market will go the way it should go, no matter what. Make a plan and trade it, either long or short. I am short now by holding SRS positions with cost $20.58 (about -5% as of today's close, but that is fine).

Have a good weekend all!

A war between bulls and bears

Buyers and sellers are fighting hard in this last trading day of this month. 3 big white bars on monthly chart seem too much to me in any bear market.

Still holding SRS positions.

15:55pm, set stop: $19.45, firm!

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Positions updated

1) My FAS limit sell order got filled at $9.45 AH. Ring the register in my performance panel +6.9% gain in 1 day.
2) My SRS limit buy order got filled at $20.58 AH.
3) Good or bad? Let market tell tomorrow.

Stock Order: FAS-DIREXION DAILY FINANCIAL BULL 3X SHARES

Status Filled at $9.45
Symbol FAS
DescriptionDIREXION DAILY FINANCIAL BULL 3X SHARES
Action Sell
Quantity XXXX Shares
Directed ARCHIPELAGO HOLDINGS, L.L.C.
Order Type Limit at $9.45
Time in Force Day
Conditions None
Trade Type Cash
Market Session After Hours
Order Date 05/28/2009, 04:36:40 PM
Cancel Date
Order Number E28CRGQM

EXECUTIONS FOR THIS TRADE

Date Time Price Quantity Total
05/28/2009 07:59:00 PM $9.45 XXXX
$X
NET TOTAL XXXX
$X


Stock Order: SRS-PROSHARES ULTRA SHORT REAL ESTATE PROSHARES

Status Verified Cancelled/Partially Filled
Symbol SRS
DescriptionPROSHARES ULTRA SHORT REAL ESTATE PROSHARES
Action Buy
Quantity XXXX Shares
Directed ARCHIPELAGO HOLDINGS, L.L.C.
Filled Quantity XXXX Shares
Order Type Limit at $20.58
Time in Force Day
Conditions None
Trade Type Cash
Market Session After Hours
Order Date 05/28/2009, 04:41:56 PM
Cancel Date
Order Number E28CRJGF

EXECUTIONS FOR THIS TRADE

Date Time Price Quantity Total
05/28/2009 04:47:15 PM $20.58 XXXX
$X
NET TOTAL XXXX $X

Update at close

I was just out of a long meeting, and am feeling that I should give an update for those who keep visiting my blogs and even following my calls, although I am pretty tired. I will be very glad if I could help you make profits on my calls.

1) My boss is very positive on banks, FYI.
2) From what the Pivot Trend System on XLF, today's up on XLF is not big enough to end the bullish call from the system. Still keep bullish on XLF.
3) From what else the system is tracking, it trigged a signal for a short term turn-around.
4) So here is my plan: coming soon. I need to review all my charts, along with analysis of my system. (For now, I would lock profits on XLF, +7.1% gain, not bad.)

I just realized tomorrow is the last trading day for this week and for this month. It could be very tricky, as where and how market closes tomorrow will technically have a big impact on its weekly and monthly charts, and thus on its future outlook. Even though I am waiting for a big pop-up in finance, I don't want to have any long exposure into tomorrow, as the Pivot Trend System signaled a bearish sign at today's close.

So here is what I decided to do and already did, I loaded SRS AH to hedge my FAS long positions. I may sell FAS tomorrow depending how market opens, since I can not rule out the most bearish scenario: a revisit SPX 880 or even lower to close, leaving the monthly chart with a long-head hammer or even doji.

Let's revisit the chart I posted on May, 20th.

http://foxswing.blogspot.com/2009/05/clear-picture-now.html

Nothing changed, plan still in play

Holding my FAS, which was loaded at yesterday's close $8.84, it is over +3% gain as of 11:48AM.

Hope that you sit tight in this morning's sell-off/shaking, if you are long.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Plan executed

Sold the other 1/2 SRS $21.52, +6.5% for this trade. Performance panel updated on the right.

Loaded FAS at $8.84 for short term play (1-3 days). Put it into my portfolio.

Yes, I am long now. So what? With a stop in mind.

Trade plan and system analysis

As you know, my Pivot Trend System is tracking XLF, IYR and SPY to give signals for swing trading, either long or short. There is one thing the system keeps telling me, which I sort of ignored when trading SRS/URE. But I think it is time to recall it. That is,

Finance (XLF) owns my system a big up day as long as it stays above $11.39.

So, my new plan is: unloading SRS and loading FAS at today's close.

Note: if mkt bounces at close, this plan will be canceled automatically.

Let's trade!

Plan to sell half SRS when SPX hits 901

Set a conditional order to execute the above plan. (SRS was loaded $20.2 at yesterday' close)

13:52PM, sold 1/2 SRS $21.51 when SPX hit 901. (+6.48%)

FoxSwing Real Time Trading

05/27/09 9:33 Short ES m9 @908.00

05/27/09 9:33 Cover long @908.00
05/21/09 13:35 Long ES m9 @884.50

05/21/09 13:35 Covere short @884.50
05/18/09 Sell ES m9 @902.25

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

New position: loaded SRS at close, $20.20

Following the signal from the Pivot Trend System. Put it into my portfolio. Also updated the performance panel on the right.

Still holding URE... Sold out

My limit order on URE at $3.3 this morning was not filled, even though I see the low of today is $3.3. I didn't chase it after missing that limit order. Still holding my URE positions loaded last Friday, with cost at $3.49. Will see how it works.

My first locking profit point will be SPX 901.
10:15AM, Sold 1/2 of URE: $3.61
12:48PM, Sold the other 1/2 of URE: $3.75

URE: +5.4% gain


Sunday, May 24, 2009

If EURO is not fooling us...

I post a different view of the market from the perspective of currency (EURO). There are a lot of bullish signs on FXE chart (FXE is the EURUSD ETF). A clear breakout on EURO two days ago should be a big warn to bears. If market is able to regain its uptrend strength from next week, quickly and with much power (after investors back from their holiday vacation), a new high (SPX above 930) is very likely to see. See the self-explained chart below.

Bears, you are warned!

Friday, May 22, 2009

Happy long weekend

Stocks are definitely not everything in our life. With your family and friends, enjoy the holiday!

The Pivot Trend System indicates a bounce early next week unless XLF closes below $11.39. I am holding long positions URE into next week.

I only traded 4 times in this week. 3 out of them are with +4.6%, +6% and -1.2% gain/loss, while the other one (URE) remains open. See my performance panel on the right.

I still keep my intermediate view of this market which is a 2-3 month "correction" is on the way. [first target: SPX SMA(50)]

Good luck!

Bought URE, $3.49; long UYM, $18.5

Right, I am not crazy that I am long right now, with tight stop though.

10:20AM, bought UYM $18.5, Basic Materials are leading to bounce.

15:25PM, Cut UYM $18.3 to reduce long exposure over long weekend. (-1.2%)

The chart looks bearish, but ...

But I can not rule out a possible dead cat bounce for this market. So just be patient.

Thursday, May 21, 2009

FoxSwing Real Time Trading

05/21/09 13:35 Long ES m9 @884.50

05/21/09 13:35 Covere short @884.50
05/18/09 Sell ES m9 @902.25

My trade plan

1) Don't aggressively short at this moment.
2) May long XLF or IYR (FAS/URE) with a proper (not big) size, due to Pivot Trend's BUY signal.
3) Slowly open intermediate short positions (I am currently holding IYR June 37 PUT)

Anyone interest on Euro futures?

I might post my realtime signal here.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Still, Oscillation will be last for a while


Still no much new to say, normally after a big trend , it should be ranged for a while before it goes to another trend. So in the trend line picture, its slope will cross over 0 sevral times in this period.
And I personally still believe, this trend was over when last time I posted here. Now even the slope of the trendline is above 0, I think it is typical oscillation. And since personally, I think no much room to go up, (Further more, as today, it likes it forms double tops around 930) I believe the next trend is down.
If you trade index futures, I suggest short on an up as I said last time.

I have to post the new signal: BUY

After I viewed the chart and posted it here for intermediate play, the Pivot Trend System signaled BUY at today's close. As you know, the Pivot Trend System is a short term player, averaging 3-4 days holding periods.

So for now, it is not a bad idea to either lock the profits on short positions or add some hedeging long positions. For me, I didn't open any long positions today. May find a better entry tomorrow just for short term play.

Clear picture now

The bigger picture is getting clear for me now. Going down from here! The final pop-up that I was expecting may happen and thus end already this morning (it looked so bullish this morning with huge volume in, didn't it?).

See the following big picture. Comments on the chart explain everything.


Currently, I am shoring IYR by put options. Will find an entry point to load SRS too.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Mixed signals: what to do?

Market erased all day's gain in the last hour selling off. However, I don't think bears won effectivelty today. There are mixed signals from the Pivot Trend System: remaining SELL on IYR, but XLF holding very well, which could lead the market go higher, even much higher from here. VIX broke down 30 the first time in the recent eight months, which is considered to be a very bullish sign to me. Bad economic data (housing data) could not even drag the market down. I do smell some strength of the market. A big up day may be right at the corner in this week. So, I decided to close the my short positions SRS with some gains, avoiding the risk of being squeezed. If I see some weakness of the market, I would re-open short positions at any time. But for now, I am flat. Remember cash is also a position.

The uptrend since March 9th is still intact. Market is expecting a final pop-up to end this round. I don't think we are there yet, but could be very close. This round of uptrend is led by finance, and will end by finance as well with a climax upside run. If I have to give a target on this round's peak, I would say VIX 25.

Good luck to all on your trading!

Locking profits by selling SRS 21.45 AH

Bought at $20.5 at yesterday's close, +4.6% gain, currently I am flat, no positions at hand.

I will give a review soon. Sorry, I am waiting for more data coming into the Pivot Trend System. Will have a post later today.

Swinger, could you post your big picture trend chart?

Bad housing data is really bad?

I missed the quick +5% gain this morning on SRS when it hit above $21.5 while I was away from my desk.

News is news. Read it objectively, don't add your interpretation on it. The thing that matters to me most is not the news itself. Instead, it is the way how market reacts after news is out. So bad-looking housing data is really bad? Market doesn't agree for the time being.

SPX bounced at SMA(10) on its daily chart, looking so strong as almost every support line for bulls works out. But could be a quick pop-up and fall hard. Let market tell us. Watch closely here.

Still holding my SRS positions.

Monday, May 18, 2009

Quick review of today's trades and new signal at close

Added another 3 winning trades in my performance list today. I was really suffering 2 of them (URE, and FAS in $9.19) last week (you would know the story if following me), but kept holding until seeing profits. Also re-entered FAS on its breakout, which turned out to be a very good trade (+6% gain). Currently, I cleared out alll my long positions and followed what the Pivot Trend System provided me, a new signal, SELL, by loading SRS at close, $20.5.

Will see how the call plays out tomorrow.

ps. I will be not at desk tomorrow morning and will have a busy afternoon. So, please expect fewer market comments through both blog and twitter.

Loaded SRS $20.5 for tomorrow.

No long positions at hand. Loaded short positions at close.

Sold 1/2 FAS $10.3

$9.75 to $10.3 +5.6% gain

15:55pm Sold the other half at $10.38, avg sold price 10.34, +6.05% gain.

FoxSwing Real Time Trading

05/18/09 Sell ES m9 @902.25

Sold the remaing 1/3 URE $3.65

avg cost 3.38, avg sold price 3.54, closed this trade with +4.7% gain.

Still holding FAS.

In FAS $9.75

Buy breakout on finance.

mental stop: $9.6

Break out on upside!

SPX 895 was taken out. Looking for long.....

Sold FAS $9.4

It didn't open above SPX 895 and 895 is acting as resistance right now. Reduce long exposure. High now: 895.05

+2.28% gain (bought at $9.19 on 5/14)

Effectively breaking out SPX 895 would be bullish for today. If that happens, I may re-enter long positions, as the Pivot Trend System remains BUY.

Don't forget to read my comments on Twitter update panel on the right (listed the latest 5). I can not put all my comments in regular posts, but will send comments through Twitter. Just keep that in mind.

Pivot Point: SPX 895

Watch closely, if it opens above SPX 895 today, a trending day could be formed. It may also indicates a trending week is on the way. Otherwise, you may need to protect your long positions.

Friday, May 15, 2009

Very Possible DownTrend in the future


Our slope of Trend line crossed downto zero on Wednesday, and remain near below zero.
On Wednesday, I said the uptrend was done. We will have a short period of oscillation and then go to next trend, the next trend is very possible a downtrend. Because there is actually no space for a up trend.
As a result, I recomend to short for an up for index.

A quick summary of this week's trades and Pivot Trend System

I had a very good start by trading SRS which was loaded last Friday, and SPY put options, with +6.4% and +4.6% gains, respectively. However, the system that I followed turned to the long side and signaled BUY. Then I have being struggling with my URE positions with average down and selling high a couple of times (you can see my previous posts with buy/sell calls on URE).

The avergage cost of URE for me $3.38 and 1/3 were sold at $3.42 (+1.18% or +0.39% for 1 size trade) and another 1/3 were sold at $3.55 (+5.03%, or +1.67% for 1 size trade), remaing the last 1/3 (today's close $3.26, -3.55%, or -1.18% for 1 size trade, unrealized loss).

I also loaded FAS at $9.19, still holding them (today's close $8.74 with -4.89% unrealized loss). In general, this week for me would be fine (by sum all the % number I listed above, +7% for 1 size trade, including unrealized loss) if I didn't loss in my SPY call options. But I did have a loss on those call options about -30%, even though sizing on this trade is not big.

Alright, where is the market at and where will it go for next week? What does Pivot Trend System provide me? SPX is pulling back from its 930 high and gets supporting on SMA(20) = 880 line for 3 days in a row. It is still too early to say that bulls have given up and bears are back in charge.

As for the Pivot Trend System, the call on long side is still valid as of now. By valid, it means it could end up with possive gains since it trigged a BUY signal (the BUY signal was given at SPX 905, so closing above 905 would confirm a valid call), or it will close its long call at the point which is above what it is right now (today's close 882). So the system simply says that it is not the time to cut loss. You will have either a higher point to cut with a smaller loss or end up with gains. I think this is the first time I explain the Pivot Trend System here.

This long call will be invalid if XLF closes below $11.38 (1.3% down from here). By invalid, it means this long call is entirely wrong. You may cut the loss immediately, or later at your own risk.

There isn't a system that can be 100% right, neither is the Pivot Trend System. However, if it turns out to be an invalid call, this will be the first bad call since I started this blog and made the system-trigged calls public from 4/23, about one month ago. Historically statistics shows the Pivot Trend System has a over 70% winning rate of its buy/sell calls. The average holding period for a call is about 4 days, with maximum 14 days on record.

Alright, we will know soon what market will do on Monday. I am currently holding 1 and 1/3 sizes positions (FAS and URE) on the long side.

Have a nice weekend and good luck on your next week's trading!

Closed call options.

They will expire today, can not hold them longer, closed them with loss

FAS almost got stopped out, low of today is $8.91 while my stop is $8.9. wow~

Still holding 1/3 URE and FAS.

14:40pm, loaded another 1/3 URE at $3.2, now 2/3 URE positions. Set stop $3.12 sharp
15:34pm,
raised stop to $3.2.
15:40pm, 1/3 URE stopped out at $3.2

Thursday, May 14, 2009

New trade, FAS $9.19

Stop $8.9. Feeling tomorrow will continue to be up!

Holding my long positions(FAS, URE 1/3 position, some SPY calls) into tomorrow.

sold 1/3 of URE positions at $3.42

Remaining the other 2/3. avg cost $3.38

14:53pm, sold another 1/3 at $3.55, remaining the other 1/3

Today's plan: unloading long positions

If market has a pop up (hopefully), I will close most of my long positions. Tomorrow is the opex/OE day, so rather keep cash in hand. Remember cash flow is important to a business, and trading is a business.

GL!

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

UpTrend finished confirmed


We can see the slope of our trend line crossed 0 today.
This indicates that this round up trend is finished.
In the following, we mostly expect some period of oscillation before another big trend
For me I'd like expect next trend is down trend. But who knows , this is bitch market.

Bears back in control?

I will give tomorrow a chance for bears to convince me. SPX is right above SMA(20) = 880 on its daily chart.

Maybe I did it wrong today, that I doubled the size of my URE positions at $3.27. So, here is the map of my URE positions now:
1 * URE (avg 3.75) -> sold 0.5 * URE at $3.92 -> bought 0.5 * URE at $3.27 -> resulting in 1 * URE at average cost $ 3.37

URE cost is not that bad, while my SPY call options are under deep water now (-50% loss).

Will see how market acts tomorrow. Good Luck!

Prepare to cut

Bad trade on long sides with URE positions. Will find a point to get most of my long positions out!

Wrong is wrong!

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

SP Trend till today


Red on the price: Our Trend Line
Red below: Slope of our trend line
Blue straight Line below: zero slope line

We can see, because of these two days drop, the slope of our trend line is closer to 0 than before. But whether it is going to cross zero, we still need to see. (we normally enter up trend when slope cross above zero, and we normally have down trend when slope cross below zero)

So till now we are still in the up trend and it is possible we go to ossilation and down trend in the near future.

A quick review of today's trades

I was away from my desk for the last one hour, and could not make any comments.

I loaded URE@$3.84 at yesterday's close, and re-loaded them this morning at $3.67 to make average cost be $3.75. Sold half of positions at $3.92 (+4.5% gain). I am still holding the other half URE positions and some SPY call options.


The Pivot Trend System remains its BUY signal generated from yesterday. Will see what the market will bring us tomorrow.

Good Luck!

ps. Today is a tough to trade, to sit tight and to stick to plans. In the case of such a day, my hard learning from the market tells me that you should keep your trades focusing on one side ONLY, either long or short, not both. Don't believe you are smarter enough than others to exactly know where to cover short and change to long. Focusing on one side is the way of avoiding double losses, and sometimes this is the way of converting your losses on paper into profits, if sticking to your plan.

Share with you guys.

Sold half URE, $3.92

holding the other half. avg cost $3.75

Foxswing Closed all 6 short @900.50

And long 2 ESM9 @900.25

Add more URE $3.66

When SPX hits 904. heavy volume on downside, not looking good to longs. Watching market closely.

URE avg $3.75.

Monday, May 11, 2009

A quick summary of today's trades and trade plan for tomorrow

Market had a choppy day today. As I expected from last Friday and today's morning, market remained a bearish looking towards closing bell. Low entry price on SRS helped me feel comfortable to sit tight by holding short positions.

Two trades today listed below, which I made all of them public and real time.
SRS: $19.75(avg) -- $21.015 (avg) +6.4% gain
SPY Put: $6.4 -- $6.7 +4.68% gain

It is not a bad start of this week. Sweet!

As for tomorrow, the Pivot Trend System clearly gave a BUY signal at today's close. After reviewing several charts and internal market strength, I personally feel pretty comfortable to load long positions from here (SPX 909). So as you saw, I bought URE and SPY Call options, a little heavy positions on the long side.

As always, Good Luck to your trading, as well as to my trading.

ps. the other half of URE were loaded AH at $3.85, avg cost at $3.84.

Loading URE for tomorrow

First half filled at $3.83. The other half limit order is still pending....

Hope that who followed my call on SRS last Friday made money today. A good start of this week, isn't it?

16:08PM, loaded SPY MAY 87 Call, $4.65.

The other half on URE set a limit order AH. Wow, give me a break

Buy XXXXX Shares of URE
Order Number:E11CXJRM
Details Filled at $3.83

Sold half of SRS positions, $20.75

Hit stop. Remaining the other half.

15:39PM, sold another 1/4 at $21.29

15:50PM, close SPY Put at $6.7 (loaded this morning at $6.4)

15:59PM, close the last 1/4 SRS at $21.27

Loaded URE at close $3.83

What a busy closing for me!

Expecting some support at SPX 901

Volume patterns so far look bearish. Still holding SRS loaded last Friday, avg cost $19.75

10:28AM, loaded some SPY MAY 98 PUT at $6.4

Sunday, May 10, 2009

Comparing our trend line and 200 hours moving average line



Red line: our trend line

Blue line: 200 hours moving average line

Main advatages of our line: much less lagging.

of course you can say if we use short term moving average the lagging will be less. Yes, you can; however, then you will lose the main trend , your line will consist a lot of small trend, and you can not have a clear picture.

Saturday, May 9, 2009

Big picture


ES prices form 09/2008 to 05/2009


A few days a gao, I said that after stress test, the market should pull back. However, today, I examine the trend line (it is not any days' moving average), it show the uptrend is not finished yet. The red line (our trend line is still up) does not even enter the osscilation region.


As a result, I need to remind the guys who want to short this market, it is still too danger. When it is a proper time to short, I will post again.

Friday, May 8, 2009

Weekly review on my trades (5/4 - 5/8)

This week, I made 7 trades, all of them were public and real time. 6 of them were closed (one was a break-even trade, not listed below), while the other one was just open at today's close (SRS, $19.75). The sum gain percent of closed trades is +16.82%. It is a good week in general, compared with market (spx from 877-930, 53pts, wow) which gained +5.89%. The notable points are I gained most from short positions in this big up week. I am even surprised how I survived and even gained not bad profits. I think I must thank much to my Pivot Trend System which provides me great market movement guidance. See my trades below.

5/8 FAS $11.42 5/8 $11.25 -1.48%
5/7 SRS $21.56 5/7 23.15 +7.3%
5/6 SRS $20.80 5/7 $22.85 +9.8%
5/4 SRS $21.15 5/5 $22.25 +5.2%
5/4 BGZ $42.2 5/4 $40.51 -4.0%

You may have a question in your mind, why not siting with longs and just follow the uptrend? The answer to me, and hopefully to you, is very clear, are you feeling comfortable staying long opened this week at such a high level after 8 weeks up in a row? If you set stops on your longs, I bet you were already shaken out (there are two negative days in this week), and re-entering always needs lots of courage and a strong heart.

Surely, I could do better, like today's FAS trade and URE call. But in trading, you will never be prefect, as there are too many uncertainties. What matters the most to me is reducing risk and protecting capitals, since what I have learned from market so far is that profits are accumulative, not from betting once big.

Hope you enjoy my posts, make money on my calls and have a nice weekend!

I am done with loading SRS

$19.8 and $19.7, a little heavy positions.

Good luck!

New plan, this time on SRS

I did not trade for today's up, even though my call on URE/IYR yesterday was so great! Hope that you have made money, if you followed my call.

I will load SRS when SPX hits 930 for the first half. The second half will be spent at close, if SPX closes higher than 930.

Out FAS, $11.25

-1.5% loss. not my type of trade.

Sell XXXX Shares of FAS
Order Number:E08BTJCL
Details Filled at $11.25

Bought FAS, $11.42

This trade is not in my plan, however, I found an interesting set up that would hopefully play out. Surely, will watch closely. This is a little risky play, don't suggest to follow.

Thursday, May 7, 2009

This blog got 7000 hits in 3 weeks

Since I started this blog on 4/23, there have been over 7000 visits from 24 different countries all over the world. Here are top 10.

1. 1,564 2.38 00:08:46 30.43% 68.67%
2. 254 4.39 00:10:00 26.38% 65.75%
3. 42 2.50 00:12:00 11.90% 64.29%
4. 21 1.52 00:01:59 14.29% 66.67%
5. 19 1.21 00:00:06 10.53% 84.21%
6. 19 1.00 00:00:00 47.37% 100.00%
7. 10 1.70 00:00:51 50.00% 80.00%
8. 9 1.44 00:01:01 22.22% 77.78%
9. 6 1.50 00:00:38 50.00% 83.33%
10. 5 1.40 00:00:07 60.00% 80.00%

THANK YOU FOR VISITING!