Friday, October 16, 2009
Market trend and trading strategies
Haven't updated this blog for a while, as I am busy looking for a job. Alright, let's talk about the market now. What I can see is that
1) There would be an about 10% correction at the level around 1120 (it may start already now).
2) After that, it will be still a good BUY-DIP opportunity, but increasing may become slow and not as sharp as before.
3) So, good strategies on trading at this moment is that BUY DIP and SELL COVERED CALLS. You know what I mean, right?
I personally bought DRYS and sold NOV 7 calls at 0.85, an assigned 12% return in a month, not bad.
Good luck on your trading!
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Added short positions, FAZ
Friday, September 4, 2009
Happy long weekend
Enjoy your long weekend and good luck trading next week!
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Be patient
Your patience will pay you off.
I am not expecting market could do much before labor day.
Just take a break!
Thursday, August 27, 2009
SPX BUY signal
Market refuses to go down, let alone down hard!
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
I am back
Signals are mixed from system. So better to have fewer positions now. I am expecting market to have a 15-20 points correction from here. But who knows ...
Manage risk!
Sunday, August 23, 2009
New high stamped
Well, I added long positions on Friday: AMD and MGM.
AMD looks that it bottoms out. MGM is lagging while LVS shows a lot of strength (breaking out) on upside. So, I am expecting MGM to catch up from here.
Good Luck on your trading next week!
Friday, August 21, 2009
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Good opportunity for bears
My best selections here are DUG and DTO for shorting oil-related, ZSL/DZZ for shorting silver/gold, and QID for shorting techs.
I will load some calls on DUG.
GL!
As is planned, I bought more DUG shares at $17.00 and DUG OCT calls. DUG option max pain is $17 on Friday. Let's see how that plays. Same stops.
1/2 DUG shares were stopped out at $16.75. Will revisit.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
System triggered SELL
I would give market some room of upside (better to fill Monday's gap) to finish its dead cat bounce and patiently add short positions. My first batch will start around SPX 1000, if market permits.
I decided to load DUG AH at $17.37, as upside for market is limited. Stops are $16.75 for 1/2, and $16.35 for 1/2.
Friday, August 14, 2009
Individual stocks requested by readers
1) This is for education purpose only, not for any investment or trading advices.
2) The new system trades 2 hours time frame, which is designed for swinging positions ranging from 2 hours to weeks, or even months. Typically, holding periods should be around 1-2 weeks.
3) All stops should be adjusted up (on long) or down (on short) with dynamic price movement. The stops I list below are for today's closing. A closing 2 hours bar price is only considered for buy/sell/stop. Prices within a 2 hours bar could be used for your reference.
1) ANR: BUY was triggered on $33.16, stop at $33.46.
2) CLF: BUY was triggered on $ 27.91, stop at $27.29.
3) TIE: BUY was triggered on $8.18, stop at $8.01.
4) AVNR: sorry, daily average volume (over last 250 trading days) is not over 1M shares.
5) YGE: Short was triggered on 7/29 at $13.66, stop at $13.39, currently in downtrend.
6) HBAN: BUY was triggered on 7/27 at $3.54, stop at $4.36.
7) STP: Shorted was triggered on 8/6 at$18.62, stop at $18.29.
8) CENX: BUY was triggered on $11.21, stop at $10.58.
9) PMI: Short was triggered on 8/10 at $2.69, stop at $2.79.
10) DRYS: BUY was triggered on $6.47, stop at $6.09.
11) UAUA: BUY was triggered on 7/15 at $3.37, stop at $5.64. This is really a good one, I wish I had implemented this system back in June.
12) JASO: Short was triggered on $4.6, stop at $4.77.
13) KFN: BUY was just triggered at today's close $3.04, stop at $2.70. The last long trade started at $1.02 on 7/21. Will like to see how this plays.
14) MFC: Short was triggered on 8/6 at $21.92, stop at $20.92.
Opex next week
1) PTrend system suggests to go up.
2) My FAZ trade was good by locking profits in time.
3) My MGM load works well, and decided to hold into next week. System suggests a stop on $8.35. The stop will be raised if MGM goes up.
4) I am currently not intending to open new long positions AH.
5) I have implemented a system focusing time frame on 2 hours chart, which means positions could be hold for days as swing trading. The system suggests all buy, sell and stop prices for a stock. I like to simply help to take a look at stocks for you from that system, if you want to name it. The only requirement is that stock price should be over $2 with daily average volume over 1M shares.
Have a good weekend all!
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Bot FAZ $25.14 AH
Long Euro futures @1.4291
also The reverse swing system for ES lost a big one from 892.25 to 993.25. and Normally after a big loss, the system will profit in the following several trades. today, the system ask to short @1006.25 after close a long from 993.25 to 1006.25.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Tough to trade this market
1) System suggests to continue to go up. I loaded URE after cutting SRS positions, but not profitable on URE positions though. Holding URE.
2) DUG covered calls protect my DUG positions today. I will let the guard on until 8/21 opex day.
3) MGM is disappointing, with +4% at open, but closing today with loss. It still fits into my set ups: above SM200, with light volume on correction. Stop still at $7.95
4) FXP is more disappointing today, closed in red with HK (-3%) and China (-5%) crashing yesterday. Holding it.
GL!
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Protect short positions
Findings:
1) Ptrend system triggered a BUY signal at today's close, closing its losing SELL call.
2) QQQQ and XLE bounced right at support (MA 20 on daily chart) intraday, indicating that bulls are not giving up and still buying at support. Surely they don't give up, at least not this easily.
3) IYR, to be fair, can only be considered as correction technically after surging days, esp with smaller volume on downside in these two days.
4) SPY corrected its overbought conditions, which may get bulls ready for another pop-up.
Do's:
1) Sold DUG AUG 17 covered all at 0.6. Not bad profits, 17-16.1(cost)+0.6, even if calls are exercised on 8/21.
2) Prepare to sell QID and SRS either today's AH or early tomorrow when seeing a little bit more weakness.
3) If market regains its strength early tomorrow, reverse to long.
4) Added a long position into my porfolio AH, MGM at $8.3. MGM stands above it MA200, retractment with light volume today. 1st target $11, 2nd target $14, stop $7.95.
5) Keep holding FXP as I see China market is in question, and so are emerging markets (BRIC).
Anyway, good luck and control your risk on trading!
Set limit orders on QID and DUG
Good luck!
Monday, August 10, 2009
Holding shorts
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Heavy short
Goldman's guy claimed today that a new bull market has begun, which to me is a significant sign of market topping. The really trustable charts are monthly charts. You will get a clear picture from reading them. Bull markets never begin the way as it is right now.
My boss cleared all his personal long portfolios two days ago, as he thought market right now is way over-priced.
Good Luck!
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Rule of game
This simple rule will at least pull you out of losers long term.
I read today's post on xtrend and wish Sol best luck!
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Time to load short positions
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
market moves in range
I closed half SRS positions at $16.7 today, and am holding both long and short positions on individual stocks. My system suggests an up day for tomorrow. Finance could be leading.
Let's see how it plays.
Monday, July 27, 2009
loaded more SRS AH
Control your position sizes to reduce risk! GL!
Friday, July 24, 2009
Good weekend, all
I am still holding SRS positions (under deep water, hmm...) and will be ready to average down if SPX goes above 1000 next week.
Good luck on your trading next week!
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Still holding short positions SRS, FAZ
I do have long positions on some individual stocks, as I told via twitter. However, I don't want to advertise individual stocks here, as this blog is mainly used to share buy and sell signals for general market or sectors from trading systems. And also small volume stocks could be easily manipulated.
Good luck on your trading!
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Monday, July 20, 2009
Friday, July 17, 2009
This OE week is almost done
Good weekend, all!
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
FoxSwing Real Time Trading index futures
07/13/09 14:34 Short ES U9 @892.75
07/13/09 14:34 Cover two Longs @ 892.75
07/08/09 12:26 Long one more ES U9 @867.25
07/02/09 12:43 Long ES U9 @ 897.50
07/02/09 12:43 Cover short @ 897.50
06/25/09 12:44 Short ES U9 @912.25
06/25/09 12:44 Cover Long @ 912.25
06/22/09 11:24 Long ES U9 @ 897.50
06/22/09 11:24 Cover short @ 897.50
06/19/09 14:44 Short ES U9 @913.50
06/19/09 14:44 Cover Long @913.50
06/15/09 11:20 Long ES U9 @918.50
06/15/09 11:20 Cover Short @918.50
06/09/09 14:24 Short ES U9 @939.50
06/09/09 14:24 Cover Long @939.50
06/08/09 12:44 Long ES U9 @924.75
Again, please don't confuse. We have two systems here:
FoxSwing: Trade SP index (ES) futures.
Pivot: Trade ETFs
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Monday, July 13, 2009
loaded SRS $20.95
GL, all~!
FoxSwing Real Time Trading index futures
Underlying,Action,Quantity,Price,Time,Date,Exch.,Account,Order Ref.,Clearing,
ES,SLD,1,893.00,18:50:39,20090713,GLOBEX,UXXXX,,,
07/13/09 14:34 Cover two Longs @ 892.75
07/08/09 12:26 Long one more ES U9 @867.25
07/02/09 12:43 Long ES U9 @ 897.50
07/02/09 12:43 Cover short @ 897.50
06/25/09 12:44 Short ES U9 @912.25
06/25/09 12:44 Cover Long @ 912.25
06/22/09 11:24 Long ES U9 @ 897.50
06/22/09 11:24 Cover short @ 897.50
06/19/09 14:44 Short ES U9 @913.50
06/19/09 14:44 Cover Long @913.50
06/15/09 11:20 Long ES U9 @918.50
06/15/09 11:20 Cover Short @918.50
06/09/09 14:24 Short ES U9 @939.50
06/09/09 14:24 Cover Long @939.50
06/08/09 12:44 Long ES U9 @924.75
Again, please don't confuse. We have two systems here:
FoxSwing: Trade SP index (ES) futures.
Pivot: Trade ETFs
sold half FAS $41.6 here, TNA $24.5
TNA: loaded at $23.3 last Friday. Target reached.
Thursday, July 9, 2009
financials are leading
Due to R.S. on FAS, I am not allowed to sell FAS holdings. I have to either buy FAZ or sell covered calls or buy puts on financials if I want to lock profit.
I am watching it closely.
URE sucks today!
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Sold all FAZ calls at $1.8
Still holding all my advertised long positions, though they are pretty under water.
FoxSwing Real Time Trading index futures
07/02/09 12:43 Long ES U9 @ 897.50
07/02/09 12:43 Cover short @ 897.50
06/25/09 12:44 Short ES U9 @912.25
06/25/09 12:44 Cover Long @ 912.25
06/22/09 11:24 Long ES U9 @ 897.50
06/22/09 11:24 Cover short @ 897.50
06/19/09 14:44 Short ES U9 @913.50
06/19/09 14:44 Cover Long @913.50
06/15/09 11:20 Long ES U9 @918.50
06/15/09 11:20 Cover Short @918.50
06/09/09 14:24 Short ES U9 @939.50
06/09/09 14:24 Cover Long @939.50
06/08/09 12:44 Long ES U9 @924.75
Again, please don't confuse. We have two systems here:
FoxSwing: Trade SP index (ES) futures.
Pivot: Trade ETFs
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Monday, July 6, 2009
holding long positions into tomorrow
Not bad for my URE long. Holding them as the Pivot Trend System suggests.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Loaded URE AH
It is against my feeling towards the current market. However, I bought URE AH, 1 size though.
Will see how market goes after holiday.
Happy holiday, all!
FoxSwing Real Time Trading index futures
07/02/09 12:43 Cover short @ 897.50
06/25/09 12:44 Short ES U9 @912.25
06/25/09 12:44 Cover Long @ 912.25
06/22/09 11:24 Long ES U9 @ 897.50
06/22/09 11:24 Cover short @ 897.50
06/19/09 14:44 Short ES U9 @913.50
06/19/09 14:44 Cover Long @913.50
06/15/09 11:20 Long ES U9 @918.50
06/15/09 11:20 Cover Short @918.50
06/09/09 14:24 Short ES U9 @939.50
06/09/09 14:24 Cover Long @939.50
06/08/09 12:44 Long ES U9 @924.75
Again, please don't confuse. We have two systems here:
FoxSwing: Trade SP index (ES) futures.
Pivot: Trade ETFs
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
load more SRS at $19.64
System keeps SELL signal into tomorrow.
Monday, June 29, 2009
bot FAZ $4.55
This trade follows a sell signal on finance triggered by the Pivot Trend System at today's close.
The Pivot Trend System is not doing great recently, which made two losing calls in a row. This rarely happens. However, on the other hand, it may be now on the way to its over 70% winning rate again. Every system/trader has its dog days.
Just move on with risk management.
Friday, June 26, 2009
Market strength
I also have some bullish ideas like CMCSA, CIEN, GLD, which I already loaded calls in.
I am currently looking at V and will load some calls too.
Today, big names are holding up great, like AAPL, AMZN, MA, GS, ...
As a trader, you must be able to be as flexible as market.
Loaded some FAZ Oct 5 call
Also another plan is to long Gold from here.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
sold the other URE $3.43, and loaded SRS
Cleared out all FAS and URE long positions, and loaded SRS at close, $20.45.
FoxSwing Real Time Trading index futures
06/25/09 12:44 Cover Long @ 912.25
06/22/09 11:24 Long ES U9 @ 897.50
06/22/09 11:24 Cover short @ 897.50
06/19/09 14:44 Short ES U9 @913.50
06/19/09 14:44 Cover Long @913.50
06/15/09 11:20 Long ES U9 @918.50
06/15/09 11:20 Cover Short @918.50
06/09/09 14:24 Short ES U9 @939.50
06/09/09 14:24 Cover Long @939.50
06/08/09 12:44 Long ES U9 @924.75
Again, please don't confuse. We have two systems here:
FoxSwing: Trade SP index (ES) futures.
Pivot: Trade ETFs
SPX above yesterday's high
Stay long and sit tight.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Market closed back to where it was open
Bulls succeeded to pull SPX back above DMA200 and DMA50, though slightly.
Before FED
I decided to hold long positions into it. You can lock some profits or add short positions to hedge, if you don't feel comfortable with your long position sizes.
Watch closely, and if something big happens, be quick!
Gap up open
As I am writing this, ES is right at 898-899, which is about SPX 905. Need to see whether it will hold up before market open.
This didn't happen. You should have a way of locking profits or adding hedging.
Market goes higher, even with not good new housing data. Strong internal strength.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Consolidation day
Good Luck!
Monday, June 22, 2009
Guys (including Pivot) Be Caution
From my trend trendline, the SP is already in the down side. The slope of trend line is very negative. Although foxswing is longing, I'd like to warn you (FoxSwing did very bad in the big trend previously, which is the point we want to improve now). If you have heavy long positions. you should cover some if there is an up in the near future.
Bot FAS and URE back at close
Stay long.
FoxSwing Real Time Trading index futures
06/22/09 11:24 Cover short @ 897.50
06/19/09 14:44 Short ES U9 @913.50
06/19/09 14:44 Cover Long @913.50
06/15/09 11:20 Long ES U9 @918.50
06/15/09 11:20 Cover Short @918.50
06/09/09 14:24 Short ES U9 @939.50
06/09/09 14:24 Cover Long @939.50
06/08/09 12:44 Long ES U9 @924.75
Again, please don't confuse. We have two systems here:
FoxSwing: Trade SP index (ES) futures.
Pivot: Trade ETFs
Friday, June 19, 2009
Sold half holding on URE and FAS
Pivot Trend System remains BUY and is expecting market up into early next week.
Have a good weekend, all!
FoxSwing Real Time Trading index futures
06/19/09 14:44 Cover Long @913.50
06/15/09 11:20 Long ES U9 @918.50
06/15/09 11:20 Cover Short @918.50
06/09/09 14:24 Short ES U9 @939.50
06/09/09 14:24 Cover Long @939.50
06/08/09 12:44 Long ES U9 @924.75
I am long URE and FAS now
Pivot Trend System remains BUY and is expecting a pop-up to end its call.
Let's see how that plays out.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
FoxSwing 10 years results
Obama to axe bank agency in financial overhaul
If Street don't like this, it will another big down.
http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN1630800320090617?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews
By Kevin Drawbaugh
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Obama administration plans to streamline U.S. bank oversight and put the Federal Reserve in charge of monitoring big-picture economic risks in a sweeping regulatory overhaul to be formally unveiled on Wednesday, a senior administration official said.
The Office of Thrift Supervision, a Treasury Department unit, would be closed and the federal charter under which savings and loans operate eliminated under the plan, the official told reporters on a conference call on Tuesday.
The Fed would work in conjunction with a council of other regulators, to be chaired by Treasury, on monitoring "systemic risk" under the plan.
The aim is to avert future problems like the severe banking and capital markets crisis that has hammered economies worldwide since early 2008, without shackling firms so tightly that they cannot drive economic growth.
"There is going to be streamlining, consolidation ... so that you don't find people falling through the gaps," President Barack Obama told reporters earlier on Tuesday.
"Whether it's on the consumer protection side, the investor protection side, the systemic risks ... It's going to be a much more effectively integrated system than previously," he said.
The administration has been discussing for six months how best to tighten bank and market regulation in response to the crisis, with the European Union moving on a similar track, more quickly in some areas than the United States.
Months of debate lie ahead in the U.S. Congress, with many of the proposed changes requiring legislation. Senate and House of Representatives committees have scheduled more than a dozen hearings between now and mid-July.
Obama on Wednesday will also call for establishment of an independent consumer financial products watchdog agency to write and enforce rules on fair lending and other matters.
Other administration goals include forcing financial groups to hold more capital so they can better survive tough times, and bringing more transparency and accountability to exotic financial markets that in recent years expanded far beyond the government's ability to keep track of them.
OBAMA SEES 'HEAVY LIFT' ON REFORM PLAN
The president pledged to pursue major changes, but warned it will be a "heavy lift" politically with special interests already offering opposition. Earlier on Tuesday, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the nation's largest business lobbying group, said it opposes key parts of the plan.
The administration wants to give the Fed new powers to police systemic risk as a way to make sure that the failure of one large company -- like bailed-out mega-insurer American International Group, for instance -- does not destabilize the broader economy.
It also will propose empowering the government to seize and unwind large, troubled companies. Part of the proposal would require large, "Tier One" companies to maintain contingency plans for their unwinding in case of future trouble.
The administration will also seek to rein in markets for securitized debt and over-the-counter derivatives, as well as more regulation of money market mutual funds, credit rating agencies and hedge funds.
It will push for changes in corporate governance that could give shareholders more power to restrain executive compensation, as well.
"We are going to put forward a very strong set of regulatory measures ... We expect that Congress will work swiftly to get these laws in place," Obama said.
"But it is going to be as usual, a heavy lift ... You'll hear a lot of chatter about 'We don't need more regulation' and 'government needs to get off our backs,'" Obama added.
"There is a short memory, unfortunately, and I think that's what some of the special interests and lobbyists are going to be counting on, that somehow we've forgotten the disaster that arose out of their reckless behavior. And I'm going to keep on reminding them so we make sure that we get something in place that prevents this kind of situation from happening again."
House Democratic leader Steny Hoyer said on Tuesday that the House will deal with financial regulation reform in late July or soon after Congress' August recess. The outlook in the Senate, which moves more slowly, was unclear.
(Reporting by Kevin Drawbaugh; Additional reporting by Corbett Daly, Karey Wutkowski, Patrick Rucker, Thomas Ferraro, Rachelle Younglai and Emily Kaiser; Editing by Gary Hill)
Monday, June 15, 2009
FoxSwing Real Time Trading index futures
06/15/09 11:20 Cover Short @918.50
06/09/09 14:24 Short ES U9 @939.50
06/09/09 14:24 Cover Long @939.50
06/08/09 12:44 Long ES U9 @924.75
This system is still in the testing, although its 12-year test result is very good. For 12 years start from 1998 to 2009 (till May 31), average profit per year is 400 points (from 09/01/2008 the test is real time, and we even made our biggest profit for the quarter 09/01/2008 to 11/30/2008).
However, this system also has high maxdown. That's why we still in testing and further developing. For example, the last trade, we started @939.50, while the ES even went to more than 959, that's $1000 paper loss, and if you can not tolerate, you will cut and loss.
I will update the realtime signal here, but please be caution and please don't follow it if you want to daytrade and cannot loss big.
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Sunday afternoon post
The Pivot Trend System remains its buy signal as of last Friday, but as you know, the system is a short term player. As for me, I am flat with no positions at hand.
By the way, I have a plan of improving the current Pivot Trend System and hope that I have time to work on it.
Hope all had a relaxing weekend.
Friday, June 12, 2009
Thursday, June 11, 2009
No much to say, still buy signal
I am still holding FAS.
watch 1:00 30-year bonds auction
then today we will back to 940 again
Released on 6/11/2009 1:00:00 PM For 6/11/2009 1:00:00 PM
Auction Results
Bid/Cover
2.68
Total Amount
$11 B
Yield Awarded
4.720%
Bot FAS, $10.45
10:15AM, Bot GS 145 Call, $4.9, targeting $6.5 today. Today may be a strong trending day.
13:24PM, Sold GS calls at $5.2, GS is slow and I will be away from my desk for a while. Small profits.
Pre-market watch
2) High treasury yield --
3) QCOM good 3Q forecast +
Market is pretty much flat, mixed with "bad" and "good" news. Again, let us see how market reacts after open.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
A Big day tomorrow?
In my view, tomorrow is a decision point for market. Tomorrow we will have two important data, one is retail and the other is jobless. I think the retailer is more important than jobless.
The retail is forecasted 0.6% increase. However, personally, I think it will be disappointed.
The jobless is forecasted 625K. This one I think it will top the estimate. If it is larger, I think people will still accept it since people will think it is because of the bankruptcy of GM last week.
So if the retail bad and jobless good, it still will be a bad day
if retail is good, market will soar to sky, even the jobless is bad.
That's my 2cent.
Welcome your comments.
New trade plan for tomorrow (6/11)
2) Will load URE/FAS if the expected pullback happens. The comfortable loading prices for me are URE: $3.8-$3.85; FAS: $10-$10.1
3) The stops for 2) will be today's lows, if you wanna set stops. (I may stop out positions according to what my system gives me, like cut URE positions this morning). But surely prices lower than today's low would let me pay more attentions to and carefully review the market movement.
4) If 1) doesn't happen (open high and go higher), buy on breakout with tight stops.
5) The Pivot Trend System confirms a BUY signal at today's close. Will see how that plays out.
6) This plan is for short-term play only.
Cut URE $4.09
11:08AM, sold half SRS calls at $3.6 (loaded at $3).
12:10PM, bot SPY 95 June puts at $2.10, expecting a target $2.4 today.
13:03PM, SPY puts reached target $2.4. Closed them.
14:05PM, sold the other half SRS calls at $4
I am flat with no positions now. The loss of SRS cut was made up for.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Nothing to say in this non-moving market
1) 1 size URE loaded with cost at $4.13.
2) SRS July 16 Calls for med-term play, cost at $3
3) Short term is up, according to the Pivot Trend System.
FoxSwing Real Time Trading index futures
06/09/09 14:24 Cover Long @939.50
06/08/09 12:44 Long ES U9 @924.75
Sold the remaining SRS, $17.84
12:11PM, as EURO stands above 1.40 firmly, market is expecting to go up. I added some XLF July 12 calls here.
Monday, June 8, 2009
Positions Updated as of 6/8
2) 1 size URE loaded AH at $4.13, following the call from the Pivot Trend System.
3) SRS July 16 Calls for med-term play, cost at $3
4) All comments and especially some market analysis are very welcome!
And my comments in the previous post's comment section. Just in case you missed it in your RSS on comments.
"To the 2nd, yes, I was pointing that IYR was a sell on Friday, and expecting a quick -5% down in 1 or 2 days. Today's sizable gap down and going lower in the morning did start the way I was expecting. However, market is always full of uncertainties. The last 1hr pulling up was showing market internal strength, esp for finance sector including part of real estate.
I think that the system provided at today's close (BUY signal on IYR) makes sense to me, as timing is also a critical factor for trading the market. No quick 5% down today, and plus the huge volume in the last hour's pop, destroyed Friday's SELL setup on IYR, and triggered BUY.
The system is flexible, and hope traders like us are flexible too."
New system signal
To me, my plan will try to dump all SRS positions and load URE AH for tomorrow.
Bought back SRS at $17.8
Hold on!! There is a question with this call according to the Pivot Trend System, reviewing it right now, which means I could turn bullish from now for tomorrow. Looking now....
Did you get the signal from C2?
@12:44 Today, Our FoxSwing System Signal:
Long ES U9 @924.75
Sold 1 size SRS, $18.17
Friday, June 5, 2009
Friday closing call: hold short positions into next week
2) If IYR closes above $35.6, the above indication will be invalid. That is where my stop is. Careful review will then be needed.
3) I loaded the 3rd size of SRS back at $17.7 before close, now holding 3 sizes of SRS positions with avg cost $19.06 for this play. Also loaded some SRS calls as med-term positions early morning. To me, I feel comfortable about holding them into next week.
4) Have a good weekend, and good trading next week.
Finance is red
Expecting a sell-off towards close. Good job numbers could not help bulls hold on highs. Market is weakening with dollars bouncing hard.
I loaded some med-term short positions, like SRS July calls as advertised in Twitter.
EURUSD is breaking down hard. If you read the comments in one of my other posts this morning, you would know that I was reading EURO when pre-market was pushing up. Now I am reading it again.
Sold 1 size SRS, $17.1
Market could go lower after I sold some. But I have the other 2 sizes to play out.
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Quick summary and a new signal triggered
2) The Pivot Trend System triggered a new signal on finance: SELL. It is not typical for the system to turn around buy/sell signals so quickly on XLF. The average holding periods for XLF by the system is between 1 and 2 weeks. It may indicate something unusual is coming soon, that I can not tell or confirm at this moment.
3) I loaded the 3rd size of SRS postions before close at $17.4, making the cost of my total 3 sizes of SRS be $18.86. How many total sizes can I add? Or what is each size should I play? That is a money management/risk control question, the answer of which really depends on individual's plans/goals/risk tolerance. To me, I have a total of 5-6 sizes to play.
4) Good Luck!
New plan on XLF
I didn't follow the yesterday's system signal on XLF (buy). That was a bad decision.
Still suffering with my SRS positions. I can not make 100% winning trades, neither the Pivot Trend System. For someone new here, the Pivot Trend System indicates an over 70% winning rate historically. I believe the performance of my real time calls listed on the right panel is proving it.
Will keep you updated.
15:53PM, I may be crazy that I loaded another size of SRS at $17.4, currently holding 3 sizes of SRS avg cost at $18.86
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Quick summary and signal analysis
Tech and real estate are holding well overall. USD bouncing led energy and commodity stocks (XLE, XLB) down hard. That is not what bears (or I) liked to see. Typically, pullback from commodity looks healthy to the broad market. Bears really want to see tech and finance leading the market down hard, but this didn't happen today.
The Pivot Trend System remains sell signal on IRY, while however, reversed the signal on XLF from sell to buy at today's close. So it is unclear for tomorrow's direction by these mixed signals. Buying FAS AH to hedge SRS positions may not be a bad idea. I am still thinking of doing this.
Monday's gap on SPY was so close to fill today, but not. If markets leaves this unfilled gap this week, what I read from it is that it is reaching a climax run, meaning that a real downside run starts next week.
I bought more SRS at $18.6 before market close, average down the orignal SRS positions, with average cost $19.59 right now. This could be a bad move, but I will give a try with a tight stop.
Good luck, as always!
Sold FAZ at $4.86
Forgot to mention loading SRS at $18.6 to average down. Now average cost of SRS is $19.59
Buy XXXX Shares of SRS Order Number:F03BVCLT | Details | Filled at $18.60 |
New plan on the trade of FAZ
No new plan on the SRS trade for now.
My potential intraday locking profit point is SPX 915+/- 1, if this happens before closing bell.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Position update: No change
XLF and IYR are down about 1.5% while market (SPX) remains flat.
Hope that I won't get burned tomorrow. Let's see.
To the subscriber
Anonymous said...
btw, I subscribed to your FoxSwing system last night, but didn't receive any notifications or emails or anything. Was anything sent out?And when does the Pivot system go into Collective?
We saw your subscription on C2 and We received email from C2 on 10PM yesterday. you will receive signals once we have actions in the future.
New subscriber to FoxSwing
Monday, June 1, 2009 10:02 PM
From:
"coll2@collective2.com"
We are now short ES m9, We did short @ 941.5 yesterday.
For the Pivot system, if our subscriber request, we will consider to put it on C2.
If you have any further question, please don't hesitate to contact us
Monday, June 1, 2009
Saturday, May 30, 2009
ES Picture till may29
We can see after the slope of the trend line first crossed down to zero on may 13, it oscillated around the zero, and the trend line is almost flat. This is what I said previously, the oscillation period. And I suggested that in this period, because mostly the next trend is down, we can short on an up for index.
Recently, some experts said the sp can reach 1050. However, although it is a possibility, I really double it. I still insist that next trend is down.
But, if the SP break 940 level, we really need be serious about the uptrend is the next.
Friday, May 29, 2009
Have a good weekend all
Market will go the way it should go, no matter what. Make a plan and trade it, either long or short. I am short now by holding SRS positions with cost $20.58 (about -5% as of today's close, but that is fine).
Have a good weekend all!
A war between bulls and bears
Still holding SRS positions.
15:55pm, set stop: $19.45, firm!
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Positions updated
2) My SRS limit buy order got filled at $20.58 AH.
3) Good or bad? Let market tell tomorrow.
Stock Order: FAS-DIREXION DAILY FINANCIAL BULL 3X SHARES
Status | Filled at $9.45 |
---|---|
Symbol | FAS |
Description | DIREXION DAILY FINANCIAL BULL 3X SHARES |
Action | Sell |
Quantity | XXXX Shares |
Directed | ARCHIPELAGO HOLDINGS, L.L.C. |
Order Type | Limit at $9.45 |
Time in Force | Day |
Conditions | None |
Trade Type | Cash |
Market Session | After Hours |
Order Date | 05/28/2009, 04:36:40 PM |
Cancel Date | |
Order Number | E28CRGQM |
EXECUTIONS FOR THIS TRADE | ||||
Date | Time | Price | Quantity | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|
05/28/2009 | 07:59:00 PM | $9.45 | XXXX | $X |
NET TOTAL | XXXX | $X |
Stock Order: SRS-PROSHARES ULTRA SHORT REAL ESTATE PROSHARES
Status | Verified Cancelled/Partially Filled |
---|---|
Symbol | SRS |
Description | PROSHARES ULTRA SHORT REAL ESTATE PROSHARES |
Action | Buy |
Quantity | XXXX Shares |
Directed | ARCHIPELAGO HOLDINGS, L.L.C. |
Filled Quantity | XXXX Shares |
Order Type | Limit at $20.58 |
Time in Force | Day |
Conditions | None |
Trade Type | Cash |
Market Session | After Hours |
Order Date | 05/28/2009, 04:41:56 PM |
Cancel Date | |
Order Number | E28CRJGF |
EXECUTIONS FOR THIS TRADE | ||||
Date | Time | Price | Quantity | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|
05/28/2009 | 04:47:15 PM | $20.58 | XXXX | $X |
NET TOTAL | XXXX | $X |
Update at close
1) My boss is very positive on banks, FYI.
2) From what the Pivot Trend System on XLF, today's up on XLF is not big enough to end the bullish call from the system. Still keep bullish on XLF.
3) From what else the system is tracking, it trigged a signal for a short term turn-around.
4) So here is my plan: coming soon. I need to review all my charts, along with analysis of my system. (For now, I would lock profits on XLF, +7.1% gain, not bad.)
I just realized tomorrow is the last trading day for this week and for this month. It could be very tricky, as where and how market closes tomorrow will technically have a big impact on its weekly and monthly charts, and thus on its future outlook. Even though I am waiting for a big pop-up in finance, I don't want to have any long exposure into tomorrow, as the Pivot Trend System signaled a bearish sign at today's close.
So here is what I decided to do and already did, I loaded SRS AH to hedge my FAS long positions. I may sell FAS tomorrow depending how market opens, since I can not rule out the most bearish scenario: a revisit SPX 880 or even lower to close, leaving the monthly chart with a long-head hammer or even doji.
Let's revisit the chart I posted on May, 20th.
http://foxswing.blogspot.com/2009/05/clear-picture-now.html
Nothing changed, plan still in play
Hope that you sit tight in this morning's sell-off/shaking, if you are long.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Plan executed
Loaded FAS at $8.84 for short term play (1-3 days). Put it into my portfolio.
Yes, I am long now. So what? With a stop in mind.
Trade plan and system analysis
Finance (XLF) owns my system a big up day as long as it stays above $11.39.
So, my new plan is: unloading SRS and loading FAS at today's close.
Note: if mkt bounces at close, this plan will be canceled automatically.
Let's trade!
Plan to sell half SRS when SPX hits 901
13:52PM, sold 1/2 SRS $21.51 when SPX hit 901. (+6.48%)
FoxSwing Real Time Trading
05/27/09 9:33 Cover long @908.00
05/21/09 13:35 Long ES m9 @884.50
05/21/09 13:35 Covere short @884.50
05/18/09 Sell ES m9 @902.25
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
New position: loaded SRS at close, $20.20
Still holding URE... Sold out
My first locking profit point will be SPX 901.
10:15AM, Sold 1/2 of URE: $3.61
12:48PM, Sold the other 1/2 of URE: $3.75
URE: +5.4% gain
Sunday, May 24, 2009
If EURO is not fooling us...
Bears, you are warned!

Friday, May 22, 2009
Happy long weekend
The Pivot Trend System indicates a bounce early next week unless XLF closes below $11.39. I am holding long positions URE into next week.
I only traded 4 times in this week. 3 out of them are with +4.6%, +6% and -1.2% gain/loss, while the other one (URE) remains open. See my performance panel on the right.
I still keep my intermediate view of this market which is a 2-3 month "correction" is on the way. [first target: SPX SMA(50)]
Good luck!
Bought URE, $3.49; long UYM, $18.5
10:20AM, bought UYM $18.5, Basic Materials are leading to bounce.
15:25PM, Cut UYM $18.3 to reduce long exposure over long weekend. (-1.2%)
The chart looks bearish, but ...
Thursday, May 21, 2009
FoxSwing Real Time Trading
05/21/09 13:35 Covere short @884.50
05/18/09 Sell ES m9 @902.25
My trade plan
2) May long XLF or IYR (FAS/URE) with a proper (not big) size, due to Pivot Trend's BUY signal.
3) Slowly open intermediate short positions (I am currently holding IYR June 37 PUT)
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Still, Oscillation will be last for a while
I have to post the new signal: BUY
So for now, it is not a bad idea to either lock the profits on short positions or add some hedeging long positions. For me, I didn't open any long positions today. May find a better entry tomorrow just for short term play.
Clear picture now
See the following big picture. Comments on the chart explain everything.

Currently, I am shoring IYR by put options. Will find an entry point to load SRS too.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Mixed signals: what to do?
The uptrend since March 9th is still intact. Market is expecting a final pop-up to end this round. I don't think we are there yet, but could be very close. This round of uptrend is led by finance, and will end by finance as well with a climax upside run. If I have to give a target on this round's peak, I would say VIX 25.
Good luck to all on your trading!
Locking profits by selling SRS 21.45 AH
I will give a review soon. Sorry, I am waiting for more data coming into the Pivot Trend System. Will have a post later today.
Swinger, could you post your big picture trend chart?
Bad housing data is really bad?
News is news. Read it objectively, don't add your interpretation on it. The thing that matters to me most is not the news itself. Instead, it is the way how market reacts after news is out. So bad-looking housing data is really bad? Market doesn't agree for the time being.
SPX bounced at SMA(10) on its daily chart, looking so strong as almost every support line for bulls works out. But could be a quick pop-up and fall hard. Let market tell us. Watch closely here.
Still holding my SRS positions.
Monday, May 18, 2009
Quick review of today's trades and new signal at close
Will see how the call plays out tomorrow.
ps. I will be not at desk tomorrow morning and will have a busy afternoon. So, please expect fewer market comments through both blog and twitter.
Sold 1/2 FAS $10.3
15:55pm Sold the other half at $10.38, avg sold price 10.34, +6.05% gain.
Sold the remaing 1/3 URE $3.65
Still holding FAS.
Sold FAS $9.4
+2.28% gain (bought at $9.19 on 5/14)
Effectively breaking out SPX 895 would be bullish for today. If that happens, I may re-enter long positions, as the Pivot Trend System remains BUY.
Don't forget to read my comments on Twitter update panel on the right (listed the latest 5). I can not put all my comments in regular posts, but will send comments through Twitter. Just keep that in mind.
Pivot Point: SPX 895
Friday, May 15, 2009
Very Possible DownTrend in the future
A quick summary of this week's trades and Pivot Trend System
The avergage cost of URE for me $3.38 and 1/3 were sold at $3.42 (+1.18% or +0.39% for 1 size trade) and another 1/3 were sold at $3.55 (+5.03%, or +1.67% for 1 size trade), remaing the last 1/3 (today's close $3.26, -3.55%, or -1.18% for 1 size trade, unrealized loss).
I also loaded FAS at $9.19, still holding them (today's close $8.74 with -4.89% unrealized loss). In general, this week for me would be fine (by sum all the % number I listed above, +7% for 1 size trade, including unrealized loss) if I didn't loss in my SPY call options. But I did have a loss on those call options about -30%, even though sizing on this trade is not big.
Alright, where is the market at and where will it go for next week? What does Pivot Trend System provide me? SPX is pulling back from its 930 high and gets supporting on SMA(20) = 880 line for 3 days in a row. It is still too early to say that bulls have given up and bears are back in charge.
As for the Pivot Trend System, the call on long side is still valid as of now. By valid, it means it could end up with possive gains since it trigged a BUY signal (the BUY signal was given at SPX 905, so closing above 905 would confirm a valid call), or it will close its long call at the point which is above what it is right now (today's close 882). So the system simply says that it is not the time to cut loss. You will have either a higher point to cut with a smaller loss or end up with gains. I think this is the first time I explain the Pivot Trend System here.
This long call will be invalid if XLF closes below $11.38 (1.3% down from here). By invalid, it means this long call is entirely wrong. You may cut the loss immediately, or later at your own risk.
There isn't a system that can be 100% right, neither is the Pivot Trend System. However, if it turns out to be an invalid call, this will be the first bad call since I started this blog and made the system-trigged calls public from 4/23, about one month ago. Historically statistics shows the Pivot Trend System has a over 70% winning rate of its buy/sell calls. The average holding period for a call is about 4 days, with maximum 14 days on record.
Alright, we will know soon what market will do on Monday. I am currently holding 1 and 1/3 sizes positions (FAS and URE) on the long side.
Have a nice weekend and good luck on your next week's trading!
Closed call options.
FAS almost got stopped out, low of today is $8.91 while my stop is $8.9. wow~
Still holding 1/3 URE and FAS.
14:40pm, loaded another 1/3 URE at $3.2, now 2/3 URE positions. Set stop $3.12 sharp
15:34pm, raised stop to $3.2.
15:40pm, 1/3 URE stopped out at $3.2
Thursday, May 14, 2009
New trade, FAS $9.19
Holding my long positions(FAS, URE 1/3 position, some SPY calls) into tomorrow.
sold 1/3 of URE positions at $3.42
14:53pm, sold another 1/3 at $3.55, remaining the other 1/3
Today's plan: unloading long positions
GL!
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
UpTrend finished confirmed
Bears back in control?
Maybe I did it wrong today, that I doubled the size of my URE positions at $3.27. So, here is the map of my URE positions now:
1 * URE (avg 3.75) -> sold 0.5 * URE at $3.92 -> bought 0.5 * URE at $3.27 -> resulting in 1 * URE at average cost $ 3.37
URE cost is not that bad, while my SPY call options are under deep water now (-50% loss).
Will see how market acts tomorrow. Good Luck!
Prepare to cut
Wrong is wrong!
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
SP Trend till today
Red on the price: Our Trend Line
Red below: Slope of our trend line
Blue straight Line below: zero slope line
We can see, because of these two days drop, the slope of our trend line is closer to 0 than before. But whether it is going to cross zero, we still need to see. (we normally enter up trend when slope cross above zero, and we normally have down trend when slope cross below zero)
So till now we are still in the up trend and it is possible we go to ossilation and down trend in the near future.
A quick review of today's trades
I loaded URE@$3.84 at yesterday's close, and re-loaded them this morning at $3.67 to make average cost be $3.75. Sold half of positions at $3.92 (+4.5% gain). I am still holding the other half URE positions and some SPY call options.
The Pivot Trend System remains its BUY signal generated from yesterday. Will see what the market will bring us tomorrow.
Good Luck!
ps. Today is a tough to trade, to sit tight and to stick to plans. In the case of such a day, my hard learning from the market tells me that you should keep your trades focusing on one side ONLY, either long or short, not both. Don't believe you are smarter enough than others to exactly know where to cover short and change to long. Focusing on one side is the way of avoiding double losses, and sometimes this is the way of converting your losses on paper into profits, if sticking to your plan.
Share with you guys.
Add more URE $3.66
URE avg $3.75.
Monday, May 11, 2009
A quick summary of today's trades and trade plan for tomorrow
Two trades today listed below, which I made all of them public and real time.
SRS: $19.75(avg) -- $21.015 (avg) +6.4% gain
SPY Put: $6.4 -- $6.7 +4.68% gain
It is not a bad start of this week. Sweet!
As for tomorrow, the Pivot Trend System clearly gave a BUY signal at today's close. After reviewing several charts and internal market strength, I personally feel pretty comfortable to load long positions from here (SPX 909). So as you saw, I bought URE and SPY Call options, a little heavy positions on the long side.
As always, Good Luck to your trading, as well as to my trading.
ps. the other half of URE were loaded AH at $3.85, avg cost at $3.84.
Loading URE for tomorrow
Hope that who followed my call on SRS last Friday made money today. A good start of this week, isn't it?
16:08PM, loaded SPY MAY 87 Call, $4.65.
The other half on URE set a limit order AH. Wow, give me a break
Buy XXXXX Shares of URE Order Number:E11CXJRM | Details | Filled at $3.83 |
Sold half of SRS positions, $20.75
15:39PM, sold another 1/4 at $21.29
15:50PM, close SPY Put at $6.7 (loaded this morning at $6.4)
15:59PM, close the last 1/4 SRS at $21.27
Loaded URE at close $3.83
What a busy closing for me!
Expecting some support at SPX 901
10:28AM, loaded some SPY MAY 98 PUT at $6.4
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Comparing our trend line and 200 hours moving average line
Red line: our trend line
Blue line: 200 hours moving average line
Main advatages of our line: much less lagging.
of course you can say if we use short term moving average the lagging will be less. Yes, you can; however, then you will lose the main trend , your line will consist a lot of small trend, and you can not have a clear picture.
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Big picture
ES prices form 09/2008 to 05/2009
A few days a gao, I said that after stress test, the market should pull back. However, today, I examine the trend line (it is not any days' moving average), it show the uptrend is not finished yet. The red line (our trend line is still up) does not even enter the osscilation region.
As a result, I need to remind the guys who want to short this market, it is still too danger. When it is a proper time to short, I will post again.
Friday, May 8, 2009
Weekly review on my trades (5/4 - 5/8)
5/8 | FAS | $11.42 | 5/8 | $11.25 | -1.48% |
5/7 | SRS | $21.56 | 5/7 | 23.15 | +7.3% |
5/6 | SRS | $20.80 | 5/7 | $22.85 | +9.8% |
5/4 | SRS | $21.15 | 5/5 | $22.25 | +5.2% |
5/4 | BGZ | $42.2 | 5/4 | $40.51 | -4.0% |
You may have a question in your mind, why not siting with longs and just follow the uptrend? The answer to me, and hopefully to you, is very clear, are you feeling comfortable staying long opened this week at such a high level after 8 weeks up in a row? If you set stops on your longs, I bet you were already shaken out (there are two negative days in this week), and re-entering always needs lots of courage and a strong heart.
Surely, I could do better, like today's FAS trade and URE call. But in trading, you will never be prefect, as there are too many uncertainties. What matters the most to me is reducing risk and protecting capitals, since what I have learned from market so far is that profits are accumulative, not from betting once big.
Hope you enjoy my posts, make money on my calls and have a nice weekend!
New plan, this time on SRS
I will load SRS when SPX hits 930 for the first half. The second half will be spent at close, if SPX closes higher than 930.
Out FAS, $11.25
Sell XXXX Shares of FAS Order Number:E08BTJCL | Details | Filled at $11.25 |
Bought FAS, $11.42
Thursday, May 7, 2009
This blog got 7000 hits in 3 weeks
1. | 1,564 | 2.38 | 00:08:46 | 30.43% | 68.67% | |
2. | 254 | 4.39 | 00:10:00 | 26.38% | 65.75% | |
3. | 42 | 2.50 | 00:12:00 | 11.90% | 64.29% | |
4. | 21 | 1.52 | 00:01:59 | 14.29% | 66.67% | |
5. | 19 | 1.21 | 00:00:06 | 10.53% | 84.21% | |
6. | 19 | 1.00 | 00:00:00 | 47.37% | 100.00% | |
7. | 10 | 1.70 | 00:00:51 | 50.00% | 80.00% | |
8. | 9 | 1.44 | 00:01:01 | 22.22% | 77.78% | |
9. | 6 | 1.50 | 00:00:38 | 50.00% | 83.33% | |
10. | 5 | 1.40 | 00:00:07 | 60.00% | 80.00% |
THANK YOU FOR VISITING!